By Ian Cooper
We’re already running out of oil we can easily find… And that's only part of the reason that Germany is starting to freak out.
In a leaked report, think tank Bundeswehr Transformation Center says:
There is some probability that peak oil will occur around the year 2010 and that the impact on security is expected to be felt 15 to 30 years later.
This could send oil prices skyrocketing — and a German nation into panic mode.
The Guardian just reported the British Department of Energy and Climate Change is keeping secrets that the UK is much more concerned about supply crises than it lets on...
And even the United States has warned of peak oil:
By the 2030s, demand is estimated to be nearly 50% greater than today. To meet that demand, even assuming more effective conservation measures, the world would need to add roughly the equivalent of Saudi Arabia’s current energy production every seven years. But this is not going to happen.
Even assuming the most optimistic scenario for improved petroleum production through enhanced recovery means, the development of non-conventional oils (such as oil shales or tar sands) and new discoveries, the military planners argue that “ petroleum production will be hard pressed to meet the expected future demand of 118 million barrels per day.”
Therefore by as early as “2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels a day.”
While many experts — especially those working for oil companies — dismiss peak oil as alarmist garbage, its consideration by business and government leaders has increased its credibility. President Obama recently noted:
For decades, we have known the days of cheap and easily accessible oil were numbered. For decades, we’ve talked and talked about the need to end America’s century-long addiction to fossil fuels. And for decades, we have failed to act with the sense of urgency that this challenge requires.
We don't believe the world will just “eventually” run out of cheap oil in 10 to 12 years…This is already happening. And it’ll be marked by demand from global economies, desperate to preserve the resource.
Economist Jeff Rubin suggests $225 oil and the end of the global economy:
As the supply from conventional oil fields drops off, it will have to be replaced by supplies from dirtier, harder-to-process unconventional sources like the tar sands of Alberta, Canada. Because the processing of unconventional sources is so expensive, Rubin argues, the crude oil it produces will be more expensive. Combine higher baseline production costs with growing global demand and you get a huge increase in crude oil prices over a short period of time.
As anecdotal evidence of the rapid depletion of conventional oil resources, Rubin pointed to frequent news stories on discoveries of major oil reservoirs in the Gulf of Mexico and elsewhere, in contrast with the lack of reporting on massive, decades-old oil fields drying up. According to Rubin, the world loses 4 million barrels per day of crude oil production every year, but we don’t hear much about it.
With that knowledge, increasing demand for oil, and the depletion rates of cheap oil reserves... We could easily see the return of $100 oil in just months.
Why Is Germany So Upset?
In calling for peak oil, the German army is planning for a world in which the country may have to go to extremes just to secure whatever oil it can… and Germany is panicking at the prospect. Lt. Col. Thomas Will — a contributer to the Bundeswehr report — maintains peak oil will happen this year. Why else, the report's authors argue, are we seeing $75 oil in a debilitating recession?
Do they fear a looming oil crunch? You bet. And what’s scaring Germany is the fact that they import nearly 100% of their oil. (In fact most nations in the European Union import their oil; at least here in the US we have domestic reserves, like the Bakken and Sanish Three Forks that we can tap into.)
As if that wasn’t scary enough, check out what the report recommends Germany should consider in dealing with peak oil: Germany would have to cut a deal with Russia if it wants to secure Russian oil supplies. In short, Germany would have to kiss Moscow’s back end — even if doing so means damaging relationships with other Eastern European states...
Germany would also have to “not offend” Arab oil exporters in any way, meaning it may have to alter its relationship with Israel and change its stance on Israel’s right to exist, say the report’s authors.
And finally, there’s always the military option. If, for example, Iran took over Iraqi oil — constricting oil supply even more — would Germany and the EU attack Iran?
So How Do YOU Profit From a Looming Crisis?
That's easy... almost too easy, in this case. You see, right now, oil and gas companies from around the world are flooding to what could be the only safe, stable place to drill for oil left: North America. That's right. They're now coming here, for our oil. Sounds ironic, doesn't it?
But get this — thanks to some very recent advances in drilling techniques, these companies are now secretly unlocking what the World Energy Council just deemed the largest oil deposits on the planet... And their share prices are rapidly blowing higher than Mount St. Helens.
Disclosure: No positions