I Think Yahoo Will Surpass Google In 2007: Here's Why

Includes: GOOG, YHOO
by: Paul Kedrosky

I was on CNBC last night making the bullish case for Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO):

* Yahoo needs to grow earnings faster than Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) to regain investor interest.

* It can do that by cutting costs, growing audience, acquisitions or improving monetization [or some combination of all four].

* It is easier to drive monetization than to increase audience markedly, and acquisitions are a mug's game without better monetization tools. Cutting costs is a non-starter.

* Yahoo trumps Google on total audience, as well as page views.

* Yahoo's monetization is about to improve [to some degree] because of Panama.

* It is easier for Yahoo to make a significant improvement in monetization than it is for Google.

* Google's monetization engine works well, while Yahoo's doesn't. It's always easier to get a big change from a crummy start position than it is to make a big change from a great start position.

* Yahoo's stock is hated, while Google's is loved.

* Yahoo will outperform Google [and the market] in 2007

GOOG/YHOO 1-yr comparison chart
GOOG YHOO 1-yr comparison chart