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Pandora Media Inc.(NYSE:P)

Raymond James Internet/Software Crossover Conference Call

May 29, 2014 2:30 PM ET

Executives

Michael S. Herring – Chief Financial Officer

Unidentified Analyst

Okay, so got our Pandora here. we’re into a fireside chat format, presenting for Pandora will be Mike Herring, CFO; Dominic Paschel, IR as well. Here let me start, maybe for those who don’t know Pandora, if you can just give a very brief overview, and then we’ll kind of jump into Q&A if that works.

Michael S. Herring

Great. Pandora is Internet Radio; it’s really defined the space over the last nine years. We play one-to-one music for 76 million people on a monthly basis, 4.5 billion hours, 5 billion hours of streamed music a quarter. The business is we’ve been public a couple of years now, almost three years. About 80% of our revenue comes from advertising for free service. and then we also have about 3.4 million subscribers that pay us $399 and $499 a month, and that’s about 20% of our revenue. So U.S. only, we’re also in Australia and New Zealand, but mostly the U.S. service.

Unidentified Analyst

Great. And I’ll probably just jump into right into talking at top of mind for investors are Apple, I would say, probably announced the Beats acquisition, which I remember for a couple of reasons, and I guess the couple of reasons, I think I guess, growing music sales growth of iTunes sales, and this kind of expands the platform, it may go into streaming side, subscription business of our people have 250,000 (indiscernible) the service, and each year three artists and three genres and just to give you a perfect – create a music experience that at an experience that we’ve (indiscernible). So maybe, you can give a little reasoning, you maybe start to see the Apple would have bought Beats, they could have bought Pandora for maybe three (indiscernible) what they paid for Beats, and may make a lot more strategic sense to my mind.

Michael S. Herring

only three?

Unidentified Analyst

Three today maybe five…

Michael S. Herring

So I think 250,000 subscribers to Beats is an exaggeration. I mean a month ago, they had 100,000 subscribers. so it’s not, I wouldn’t – I think what that – what Beats proved through Super Bowl commercial and a year’s worth of hype and the concerts, and the supporting cast Dre and Jimmy and Eddy, celebrity they could get to tweet about it is really a hard business to do well.

Apple learned that as well coincidently with a launch of iTunes Radio again, much height, much anticipated launch of this radio service last September, we did see a slight drop in user from that and since it recovered and continued to grow. Again, it’s really hard to do. The nine years we've been at it. The Music Genome project, where we take every song in our service and we break it down into 450 attributes.

So, we get a sense of what that music sounds like, it’s done by music colleges, it’s not processed by computers, a person listens to that song and really rate what that song is about from a human experience perspective that’s the basis, we build the data on top of 40 billion thumbs, many billions of hours of music, stringing songs together for actual users who then tell us whether that’s good or not through a thumb up or a thumb down and then customizing playlist for those people for every single person going forward.

It’s really hard to do, nine years head start in terms of building a massive data assets that we've used to create this incredible music service. And therefore – and so the utility of that service the listening experience is just that much better, iTunes Radio learned it the hard way that no matter how much muscle and hype you put behind something, music listing is so personal, it’s such an important experience on a one-to-one basis that you (indiscernible) it does that really well, it’s pretty hard to build market share. That is a problem.

And Apple has been a really important partner for us, we were there at the launch of iPhone, we have been a top app from the beginning both paid and free within that Apple iTune system. And from that perspective our interests are very much aligned. As they wanted to compete with Google Android and such, everyone is trying to figure out, what their music strategy is because of mobile experience it’s fits very well, with how it can send music, music has been mobile forever whether it’s cars or transistor radio, or whatever, there is a natural connection to have music with us, where we want it live and so how that works with phone has been an important aspects that Google is trying to figure out that Apple is trying to figure out.

iTunes had been a really important franchise in a lot of ways, downloads we have been struggling to grow, iTunes Radio is to help to grow that again, instead it takes down since the launch of iTunes Radio, Beats launched in January to a lot of fan fair, didn’t drive a lot of subscribers, we are out raising money again, I think what Apple looked at is here is another way to try and monetize music, to try and provide a high quality music experience, that’s competitive with Google, Google ad, Google play competitive experience to these which is a good fit for them.

Jimmy is (indiscernible) is very well respected in the music industry, Ian Geller our icon for the last 20 years and certainly having a closer and more positive relationship with music industry would be to Apple’s interest as they try and solve sort of the next generation of how music can be consumed and specifically how – what are monetization streams are going to look like and how you can work better with the partners that are I mean the providers to get better.

So all of these things coming together sounds like a rationalization for the acquisition, how it impact Pandora, its not competitive that on-demand space now Google bought it by and Apple are competing directly head-to-head. And then a bunch of smaller players its not basically we compete in at all, the connected radio, the lean back experience, free ad supported part of music listening, that’s Pandora’s domain, we still have a dominant market share by far to that product.

Unidentified Analyst

Staying on the competitive firm for a second, we had a team here last night, a lot of the teenagers, most of them where you can quantify, they wanted to use Pandora, but you see a trend and I use Pandora more, I think its just (indiscernible) want to have more of a radio experience, what do you see in terms of different age groups?

Michael S. Herring

Well so I think you are right in the context of how we engage with music changes overtime as other life pressures and how much – how we want to listen to music and how aggrieve in discovery versus listening to music we know, that changes in our life cycle. I don’t know how you source to your teenagers for yesterday, but to put in some context we have more 13-year and 17-year old listeners to Pandora and Spotify has listeners in the United States in total.

So a scale is an important thing to put in the context here. Spotify stream their total hours that they streamed in all of 2013. We stream in one quarter. Like it’s just a different level of scale and you got get outside of Cisco to understand where that penetration comes from.

That said, I’m sure Spotify is a great product, it’s a different products with a different experience, it’s a lean end build to play that listen to an album side, I mean subscriber to Spotify for that reason, I have 10% to 15% of my listening that used to be satisfied with the 400 CDs that I still own and the mp3 server with 3000 songs on it collecting dust in the corners more art than functioning day, because I don’t need that anymore.

Spotify could replaced that ownership part of it with its rental model that works really well. There’s a Pandora there that completely do the market. That’s about back 10%, 15%, 20% of how people could do music. We’re the other 80%. That’s why scale is so much different. When you look at Pandora versus the on demand services.

Unidentified Analyst

Great. Recent all the investor concern has been, just maybe user growth. You got 75 million users, roughly 75 million today to tick up in April. I think on the Q1 call Brian noted that you are trying to see some momentum building on the user growth. Any more color, maybe some of the metrics underlying that give you more confidence that you start to see user growth improvement, I mean what’s the either intermediate or long-term target where 75 million can go to…

Michael S. Herring

I mean, there’s a lot of great news on usage. Engagement is all-time high, 22 hours per user, up from 17 hours a year ago. Hours are what matter the most at Pandora. It’s what drives our confidence, also is where our monetization potential is. And so we really focused on engagement. We’ve never in our history spent money or really any time thinking about how to drive users to our service or even how to drive hours until this year.

And engagement is really the focus because that’s where the promise of mobile has been, in providing an engagement, engaging experience with listeners. You know a lot about that listener because of that engagement and it creates a really high-quality advertisement environment.

So that’s our focus. That’s why we talk about engagement a lot. We do think about users as well. We believe that the 240 million people that can still listen to AM/FM radio, a lot of them will move to connected sources of music and radio over the next few years, and we certainly believe that we can have 100 million plus listeners in the United States over the next one to three years.

Our primarily goal is to balance that. If that happen tomorrow it would be great I suppose from a listener belief experience and we’d be very profitable very quickly because of the balance between the cost, growth and how fast we can monetize. This business is about balancing those two things together over time. It’s something that Brain and I and rest of the executive teams think about a lot. How do we continue to grow this business from a user and hours perspective so that we maintain the market share that we’re still proud of, that gives us all the opportunity we have.

At the same time feed the business model and after that it becomes a very profitable business financially as well. That’s the kind of the balance. I think we can get 100 million plus in New York. We have design to go international and we got about 1 billion users some day. I mean if you want to show a big carry goal out there, but there’s a lot of incremental hard work between now and actually I’m keeping on that.

Unidentified Company Representative

In all together big leverage to the model is kind of monetization RPM. I think you’ve recently talked about. Maybe you can get to $100 RPM longer term. I think you’re currently about $40 range from mobile, $60 plus for desktop. What are kind of the inputs to getting to that $100 potentially longer-term.

Yes, so LPM is a pretty simple calculation just sell through 8 times inventory or quantity and price effective CPM over ours. And driving RPM up has been really important for the company because we have LPM and licensing costs for Dow and us, that is pretty significant than $22, if we don’t at least sell $22 of revenue per hour, we don’t even kind of cost of paying the copyright holders, in which we pay them a lot, we paid $340 million to them last year.

So, it is pay train we are staying ahead of from that perspective and we’ve done a great job of last year and now as a company creating that GAAP going from Q1 of last year at $24 LPM to $44 LPM by Q4 of last year. All of that straight to gross profit, right. So, how do we do that? It’s hiring sales people to drive sales per day gradually increasing the inventory piece. So, quantity slowly increases in that calculation, but we don’t do it at the expense of price. This is a profit optimization game not a revenue optimization game.

So, you have to think about the cost of delivering that revenue from the content perspective and from the sales efficiency perspective as part of that equation. So, it’s about maintaining price through targeting, through effective sales management, through mix shift and more and more localized advertising there at higher pricing. So, really focusing on driving ECPM up, gradually we’ve done a great job of last six quarters. Every quarters increasing effective CPM over time, while driving sell-through through expanding the sales force.

That inventory equation, we’ve increased twice in the last 18 months. We don’t expect to increase again this year is that the maximum of 6 ads per hour other than driving hour. So, hour inventory and how it goes up.

Unidentified Analyst

But what the …

Michael S. Herring

2.5 in Q1 was almost 3 in Q4 last year, we’ve seen an audio there. But, we didn’t try and dump of bunch advertising in Q1, because we want to preserve that price increase. Is it the long, it is the long-term gain for us.

Unidentified Analyst

Great. And in terms of auto market, I mean auto and traditional radio is 50% of advertising market, or 50% listening hours.

Michael S. Herring

Yes.

Unidentified Analyst

And the you are starting you’ve mentioned maybe on 5% or 10% of your listening is an auto, what you can seasonal profit tipping right LTE in the car, what you think that drives tipping point again…

Michael S. Herring

So, we always believe that getting connected in the cars an important part of our future growth. Not really driving users as much as driving that hour component and so, the investments we’ve made over the last four years has really paid off, we’ve gone from four years ago, we were in three cars to 135 miles today a third of all cars sold in the United States. We've had 5 million activation in the car so that part is starting to accelerate, we think that helped us grow that 20 hours, 22 hours per user over time. It is a valuable from an advertiser perspective time, with captive time you are -- you theoretically can do more ad per hour, because people are more used to ads in automobile and advertisers value that engagement.

In our unique case, actually the headwind to that is that we don’t have a digital or video opportunity to advertise that same time so those things kind of cancel each other out we’ve had – we just started serving ads in car in January, we've had great traction, sold millions of dollars out of advertising in auto targeted advertising already this year, as our growth there accelerates we think that will be a nice business from an advertising perspective.

I think it also changes a little bit how we think about what Pandora does. So that’s the automobile has different listening characteristic than say listening living in home things like weather and traffic matter a little bit more. So we may go where we can insert on an opt-in basis, spoken word content into the music experience in order to better to cater to the needs of the listener in the car. There is lots of aspects of our business that might change overtime as that become a bigger percentage, but we are looking all those options right now.

Unidentified Analyst

Great. And Pandora has recently rolled out a number of new features I guess over the last year or so alarm clock, sleep timer, station recommendations. What kind of success have seen with uptake of these new features and you have a backlog of additional products, we should expect over the next year or two.

Michael S. Herring

Yes, I mean for the first time maybe in the company’s history we rolled out features that are something besides to stay with enhancing and that’s – and they are focused on driving engagement so getting people to use the product more often, more days per week, more times in a month and that’s – and so the notification that are – or recommendation on station is about driving engagement.

The alarm clock that are getting to start their day everyday listening to Pandora, in that example we’ve had really good success not just in adoption you know much higher than we thought – most people already have it in alarm clock they are used to but switching over to Pandora has been extremely popular and particularly among android users for whatever reasons and for those who moved over who start using the alarm clock feature they listen to about 15% more hours per month on average.

So its that’s the reasoning behind the kind of product features, there is a lot more of that coming in the pipeline for the back half of the year.

Unidentified Analyst

Great, and you establish kind of brick and mortar relationship, I believe commercial offering through DMX a couple of years ago, I think you recently signed up a thesis part of that platform, but what do you see for the commercial opportunity going-forward (indiscernible) focus on recent conference calls.

Michael S. Herring

It’s relatively small part of our business, just from an scale perspective, even though it tripled the account in the last two years, Pandora is in high demand among business, we actually have a lot of efforts within Pandora to identify business users that are using the consumer version and migrate them over, we think that’s a nice business. we don’t think there is a huge opportunity with Pandora that said we have a great partnership with Mood, which is now that DMX business, and looking for ways to take that and be more aggressive, roll it out of mean I think that potential – that business to could be three times or four times the size it is toady.

Unidentified Analyst

Great. Just in terms of ad targeting I think Pandora mainly uses kind of your basic just call it age, gender and station which is obviously by far much greater than traditional radio, how do you foresee that progress in some of the different ad targeting platforms going forward here?

Michael S. Herring

Well so age, gender and zip code that is essentially have in traditional radio target, which is based upon in Arbitron PPM meter, so what who is within 50 miles of this radio tower in a given time, so but the good news about that is that that fits very nicely into how radio buyers think about targeting. So, when they want to reach at certain demographic, it’s those three attributes, its county, its age, its gender.

And so, it fits very nicely our basic first party data first really well into that. The next layer of that is where its really interesting, the massive data set that Pandora uses to optimize it’s service the music as we play, is the same data set that use to create segments to optimize the advertising return, and that is really the next big phase. We can take and really start drilling down into segment actually we’ve got a whole data science team. They use this everything from what device you use to what cell towers you are actually contacting us through.

So, like your zip code might be here, but we can assume where you are working, what time of day you listen to music, what kind of music you listen to, what kind of stations do you have on there, how long you listen in a particular time, with regular pattern all that can determine, everything from ethnicity to political leaning, to income levels to whether your parents or not, how older your kids are all those things can be inferred out of that data and then creates these really high value segments that we have in tapped with surveys, and they are incredibly accurate, that has a lot of value to the big advertisers out there that CPG companies et cetera.

They’re really trying to reach very specific statements with certain marketing campaigns, that’s really the value of this first quality of data at scale. It’s what add value to the Facebook advertising to add value, Twitter to advertising is why mobile companies are trying to figure out ways to get logged in audiences, added big enough scale to have segments that can really be valuable to advertisers.

Unidentified Analyst

Okay. And finally, let me put to audience, if you look at the royalty negotiations, I think 2016 to 2020…

Michael S. Herring

Yes.

Unidentified Analyst

When you sort of kind of negotiating or making your points to the kind of exchange board or the royalty board, and if look at – I was looking it seriously, I guess, they’re paying, it looks like roughly $1.25 per month for subscribing Pandora roughly $0.50 a month for active user. I guess, is that picked by more of a subscription model versus advertising model that Pandora...

Michael S. Herring

They don’t really – they pay 8% of revenues, so it’s very different contracts. So it’s – we have a lot more users and we pay in a different passion. That arbitration is focusing today, it ends in December 2015, the next fiver years. So it’s impossible to say where we go. If I had to handicap I would say, we would be much different, but we’ll see I think Pandora is going to put its best with forward, I think with proven other rate card proceedings that we know what we’re doing that our arguments are logical and they are winning today. And so we feel like we’re confident that we’ll have a good story to tell to the copyright royalty board and the outcome in, it won’t be dramatically different in a way that affect our business correct.

Unidentified Analyst

Let me ask few questions from audience.

Question-and-Answer Session

Unidentified Analyst

(Question Inaudible)

Michael S. Herring

$340 million last year, yes.

Unidentified Analyst

(Question Inaudible)

Michael S. Herring

Yes, firstly it’s different than network environment. I mean the example I would use is that, it’s my favorite movie, right, that I’ve seen is maybe 15 times right, (indiscernible) I’m probably listen to it 2009. The music is very different. We listen to the things over and over get staying our connection. Content what a television show or movies very much, I love the wire, but I’m not going to watch some of these again.

Even though it was maybe my – the best series I’ve ever seen, I’m waiting for the next thing to come out, the next card season, and I’m going to watch that. So it’s a very different dynamic. It doesn’t mean there isn’t maybe a role somewhere down the line for ownership in this market. I think what really just has to happen is a balance of the interest between the copyright owners in this case and the distributor. And it’s very much in front right now.

The other people are in this space now you know have a large cellphone businesses and in search business and other things that affect that decision making here whether here Google or YouTube or Google Play or our Apple now it beats or iTune Radio or iTune store is generally I think there is a lot of different pressures going on and we are going to see a lot of changes in the way content owners interact with distribution model. But ownership have left I think developing new content had less impact here like if starting a new label and developing new apps would have very, very ministry all impact is that’s our ability to control cost. How we play with owners in other ways I think there is small potential there.

Unidentified Analyst

(Question Inaudible)

Michael S. Herring

Yes.

Unidentified Analyst

(Question Inaudible)

Michael S. Herring

At the maximum yes…

Unidentified Analyst

(Question Inaudible)

Unidentified Analyst

So for the webcast it’s about auto and kind of how that rolls out net new users the incremental based on the kind of rollout in 135 miles and then also maximum (indiscernible).

Michael S. Herring

The auto strategy is an interesting at we’ve really have seen more of the engagement plus than a new user base although there is the brand extension either from the co-marketing has been done by auto or even just a factor Pandora shows up on the dash and I think it has been but then really positive for our ability to attract the users. It’s the way when we see the use case; they don’t signup through the dash they still signup on a phone and then connected to the dash. So it’s really hard to see whether that dash present it actually drove the users versus that.

So it’s a top analytical problem we know. We believe to had a positive impact but more of and they are not what we hear anecdotally from automotive companies and we see internally in data is that as part of its decision part at some level its the positive check mark that indoors is one the dash and I am Pandora user and there is one last thing they need to convince the user of our its another positive they get from comfortable with the car as their choice. What’s the second question?

Unidentified Analyst

When I got…

Michael S. Herring

Ad load. So, I mean I don’t know where that is. We test that quite a bit. To be in connected areas we can test things and see whether they work or not. And I believe that actually we don’t need to race the higher ad load because the segmentation takes that away. As we get more and more segmented in consult specific audiences, we use less media to deliver the same revenue, which allows effective CPM to increase and resell that media we would otherwise had to sell or say in a different way waste less impression to deliver on a campaign.

So that aspect actually dampens the need to increase ad load. That said, we’ve done a lot of testing. We believe there’s headroom to increase ad load. We’ve done a lot of – we just started delivering ads in autos. We just started delivering ads in home entertainment device, which we’ve never done before. We can do device specific advertising. So I’ve different strategies for auto versus your (indiscernible) versus phone versus your desktop. We do got very specific go-to-market strategies in advertising and each one of those.

For the ad load the highest level is actually different decision on each one of those platforms. We measure the impact based on the turn rate and minutes left. So we change the ad load how often does that change, how often within the Pandora to this run rate and how many minutes you’ve visited on average in a month. For example, we went from four ads to six ads, but we put them in two ad block. Both those metric actually improved.

So I wish we could find 10 more things where we added ad load that improved listening metrics, but one of the contacts is longer slots of listening, value by listening in between even if you had two ads to that. So that we tested that exhaustively before we move that out. I don’t think we’ll increase ad load explicitly this year. There you’ll see a test for a lot of different pieces like that and certainly we’ll out ads more aggressively into places that are under monetized right now.

Unidentified Analyst

Show me (indiscernible) actually that’s on a huge percentage of listening today with mobile 75%, 80% of listening already.

Michael S. Herring

Yes.

Unidentified Analyst

That are 12 percentage today.

Michael S. Herring

It’s relatively. I mean, desktop is about 20%. Of the 80% that’s mobile, 13% of that 80% is non-mobile phones, but we can fit a tablet. So the bigger fee to that. And then its fee devices home electronics or auto and wheeling, about 30%.

Unidentified Analyst

(Question Inaudible)

Michael S. Herring

We have many direct deals for with national to date. We have conversations with every players that with needs to make that happen but we haven’t seen – we have don’t anything else. I think over time direct deals are required I think to go internationally and we want to go internationally, so that will have to happen to make that happen outside of Canada is probably the only other country to have CRD process that’s workable.

Unidentified Analyst

(Question Inaudible)

Michael S. Herring

Right, I mean it really comes down to price and overall and it’s come down with the partnership mentality, and I think in order to do we have to come out with the price we are willing to pay and there are willing to accept. So it seems logical but that is there is big gap there today and second, they have to believe that our entry into the international market is a positive overall for the health of their business.

Pandora owned the requirement to show that’s the case. We need to show that the majors or the end is that Pandora is impact on a market is positive for the music industry generally from everything from impact on our ability to have a career, to be everything artist did, the dollars that the revenues that industry actually collect. And Australia and New Zealand is a good little microcosm test, I think we’re long way from convincing people of value probably here you ask them, if they were here today they would say that they are not convince that we have a positive impact I think that that something we can demonstrate over time win that partnership.

Unidentified Analyst

Great, one final question and we will ramp there.

Unidentified Analyst

(Question Inaudible)

Michael S. Herring

Yeah. Right on the sell side or the artist side I am sorry.

Unidentified Analyst

Sales side.

Michael S. Herring

The sale side. Okay so the question is about real time bidding platforms. So real time bidding and programatic options are still pretty nascent, really only develops for desktop its way today maybe some video which is a really small piece of our business. Where our big opportunity is audio for example there is nothing there is no opportunity that take advantage, so the rest premium and even web display, look it’s so nascent and those platform largely depend on cooking environment we’re starting to see mobile.

So that’s why Twitter and Facebook the Pandora we are very focused on addressing that ourselves because as a logged in first party network we can target the same way a cookie environment targets, but we can do that at a level that maybe even more granular and RTV bidding or automating that bidding process or automating the purchasing process which is really what problematic is about, can be really facilitated by that segmentation.

And in the context that mobile, with large publishers like ourselves and we control the pricing in that environment and that’s where it healthy. Where it’s not healthy at times in this play side in desktop but its controlled on the advertising side, it’s controlled by a third-party network and that drives CPMs down pretty significantly.

In the mobile side I believe that’s going to develop differently because its controlled by the publishers and the reason why twitter bought (indiscernible) its like they want to control that environment pay per development on exchange, you control the pricing and that they introduce the mechanism that make it easy to buy advertising at the right price, so I think that hasn’t accelerate into the potential monetization in mobile, but we are three years into the overall market and months into trying to solve that problem. I think we’re – and a year from now we’ll have examples of it running in the markets in two years from now I think it will be meaningful from a revenue percentage of sales.

Unidentified Analyst

I think we’re out of time.

Michael S. Herring

Thank you very much.

Unidentified Analyst

Thank you for Pandora.

Michael S. Herring

I appreciate it.

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Source: Pandora Media's (P) Management Presents at Raymond James Internet/Software Crossover Conference (Transcript)
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