Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Friday September 10.
Raining on the Solar Parade: Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL), First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR), Yingli Green Energy (NYSE:YGE), Suntech Power Holdings (NYSE:STP)
Solar is having a day in the sun, with the sector in general up 6.6% compared to a 3.9% rise in the S&P. Trina Solar (TSL), First Solar (FSLR), Yingli Green Energy (YGE), Suntech Power Holdings (STP) are rising on news of a $750 billion alternative energy stimulus in China, however, Cramer thinks the solar sector is overheated and too dangerous.
Solar companies rely heavily on subsidies, which are going to be cut dramatically in countries which expend the most cash on solar: Germany, France, Italy and Spain. Cramer also thinks the space has become too commoditized:
This is also an increasing commoditized industry with low barriers to entry where there isn't much to differentiate one company's products from another... kind of like uncoated free sheet or aluminum. They all end up competing on price. That's why most solar companies give guidance forecasting lower average selling prices when they reported their last quarters.
The solar sector has risen too far too fast and is headed downward. The upturn has been temporary, and the general trend in the past two years is that solar stocks have been in decline. Cramer would ignore the temporary boost in the sector and would stay in the shade.
Cramer says there is a new rulebook to play Obama's speeches, which are becoming more moderate and pro-business. Investors no longer need to be in "duck and cover" mode when the President speaks, but can expect stocks to go up on Obama's bullish comments up until the election.
Concerning individual stocks, Cramer would buy Best Buy (BBY) before it reports on Tuesday. Although the stock has been "horrible," he thinks it has been beaten up enough to justify buying. He also would take a look at Cisco (CSCO) which has an analyst meeting on Tuesday and has also been a poor performer. Cisco's sluggish action has been due to disappointing guidance and not fundamentals. FedEx (FDX) is a "terrific read on global growth," but Cramer regards it as a "tell" stock, since the bar is not that low on FDX and he prefers UPS (UPS). Research in Motion (RIMM), which reports Thursday, is in "catch up mode" with Apple (AAPL). Cramer doesn't think it will ever match its prodigious rival, but wants to hear what the company has to say. He would pay attention to Oracle's (ORCL) call on Thursday, particularly what it has to say about tech spending, hiring former Hewlett Packard (HPQ) CEO Mark Hurd, licensing revenues and its hardware business.
For speculation Friday, Cramer recommends Cognex (CGNX) a "conservative speculation" play on computer vision systems. With $5 per share in cash, Cognex has a substantial "cash life jacket" and unlike most speculative stocks, it offers a dividend. The company has a diverse product line and its biggest business, factory automation, is at all time highs. The company reported a blowout quarter in August, topping TheStreet's estimates of 22 cents per share with 38 cents per share. Cognex is expanding globally in emerging and developed markets and has a multiple of just 12.5% compared to an expected 28% growth rate for the coming year. Cramer would invest in this "real company with real profits."
Natural Gas Scandal: Cheniere Energy (NYSEMKT:LNG)
Cramer was disgusted by news that the Department of Energy granted Cheniere Energy (LNG), a company that is a pioneer in producing liquefied natural gas, a license to export the fuel on a massive scale. This means that, rather than benefiting from a clean, cheap source of energy that could lessen America's reliance on OPEC nations and get the U.S. back to work, America prefers to send liquefied natural gas overseas.
Shame on our politicians for letting this happen. Shame on our leaders for ignoring the benefits of our own domestic fuel that's in such abundance. Bravo to Cheniere for recognizing that nothing's going to change in this country, and we will be beholden to OPEC and foreign energy for years to come, because we think that windmills and solar and "clean coal" are the only answers.
Unbelievable. Unforgivable. And outrageous.
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