Shifting Mood in Europe: Open Fire?

Includes: FXE, SPY, VGK
by: Macro Man

Today is one of those days when you really don’t know what to do, but you have a twitchy trigger finger and things are getting nervous. So far, the run up in equities has occurred nicely; we have had a turn in USTs and the euro has indeed been a false start sell-off, correcting back up leaving us room to reconsider the opportunity to sell it.

But today just feels a bit more "iffy." Whether that is biased by sitting in London, listening to the radio and wondering if you are back in the 1970s with the TUC threatening coordinated protests and action against the cuts. Or if it’s the Telegraph article about the doom coming, we don’t know, but the press is sounding more like the Kaiser Chiefs everyday.

Or if it's hearing about the ongoing grief in Greece that the world apppears to have forgotten. Our interest in Greece has of course been provoked having witnessed first hand the extraordinary pricing of nearly everything out there this summer.

October's Vanity Fair is carrying a great article on how the crisis evolved and the mind set that prevails and is well worth a read. Some of the figures quoted are staggering. The BBC also ran a piece last night on how the populace is trying to fight back. The most facinating way of protesting they have developed is militant shopping. You go as a crowd into a supermarket, fill your baskets, all arrive at the check out and then all demand a discount causing chaos.

Team Macro Man wants to try that in some UK establishments, but unfortunately most of the complete rip offs are occuring in the monopolistic service industries you can't avoid and they know it. UK RPI printing today at 4.7%? Please show us the deflation this summer's markets were so discounting...

It may just be a sanguine post holiday gloom. But whatever is affecting Team Macro Man's pschye is making them wonder if its time to open fire on the bulls, but it’s not clear. Ideally we would see a break of the recent SPX highs in the 1130 region to see a renewed wave of buying come in for one last hurrah, as it still generally feels that there aren't many people on board this equity run and denial is rife.

But there are some technicals mounting that need to be overcome. There are a raft of soothsayer indicators suggesting turns in FTSE, HSI, DAX and Copper and there is one coming up in SPX tomorrow.

Add to that a mood shift following a good rally, the onward approach of our end of September "it all falls over again" date, the softness in Germany's data and, despite the ideal of seeing one more big up-splurge, we are going to make a call that those are definitely white socks and let loose the first volley into the oncoming equity bulls and also restart the euro selling.

"Let em have it lads... Sell!"

Disclosure: No positions