Euro-Yen Breaks Down

Includes: FXE, FXY
by: Marc Chandler


Euro has convincingly broken its 200-day moving average against the yen.

A break of JPY138 would target JPY136.

Some of the euro bears may be getting ahead of themselves.

This Great Graphic, composed on Bloomberg, shows the recent price action of the euro against the yen. It finished yesterday's North American session below the 200-day moving average for the first time before Japan's Abe was elected at the end of 2012. It comes in today near JPY138.70.

It is now kissing the lows set in late May near JPY138. A break of this support would target the low for the year that was set in early February just above JPY136.

Based on the current information set, we do not expect this lower level to break. If it were to break, the next immediate target would likely be in the JPY133.50-JPY134.00 area, which corresponds to the upper end of the trading range seen in the middle quarters of last year. Some super euro bears are talking about a potential retracement of the big advance since July 2012 low near JPY94.10. A 38.2% retracement would bring the euro to about JPY126.

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. The author wrote this article themselves, and it expresses their own opinions. The author is not receiving compensation for it. The author has no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.