Poonam A. Arora
Long/short equity, value, research analyst, biotech

Puma Biotechnology: Risk Reward Imbalance

Investment Conclusion: Based on my sum-of-the-parts valuation incorporating my bull case revenue estimates and assumptions, I arrive at a Price Target of $61.88/share for Puma Biotechnology (NYSE:PBYI). The sharp sell-off in PBYI shares during and post ASCO 2014 was warranted but not due to the reasons circulated on social media. Twitterati were inclined to believe that Neratinib effect on brain metastasis was terrible and pCR as surrogate end point in neo adjuvant breast cancer was on its way out. Actually, Neratinib interim results from its Phase II study in HER2+ breast cancer with brain metastases were relatively fair when compared with Tykerb outcomes in a similar setting and not representative of the actual regimen that will potentially generate...

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