AUD/USD - Moves To 2-Month High Around 0.9425

 |  Includes: CROC, FXA, GDAY
by: Dean Popplewell

By Stuart McPhee

AUD/USD for Friday, June 13, 2014

After spending a couple of weeks at the end of May trading near and finding support at 0.9220, the Australian dollar has enjoyed a solid surge over the last couple of weeks. It has not only moved through the key 0.93 level but moved to a resistance level around 0.9425 and in doing so achieved a two-month high. The 0.9220 level has repeatedly reinforced its significance as it is again likely to support price should the Australia dollar retreat. Only a month ago the Australian dollar was placing pressure on the resistance level at 0.94 when it was able to poke through for a short period and reach a four-week high in the process; however, in the last 24 hours it has surpassed those levels and achieved the two-week high.

Throughout April and into May the Australian dollar drifted lower from resistance just below 0.95 after reaching a six month high in that area and down to the recent key level at 0.93 before falling lower. During this similar period the 0.93 level has become very significant as it has provided stiff resistance for some time. The Australian dollar appeared to be well settled around 0.93 which has illustrated the strong resurgence it has experienced throughout this year. For the best part of February and March the Australian dollar did very little other than continue to trade around the 0.90 level, although at the beginning of March it crept a little lower down to a three week low below 0.89. Towards the end of March, however, the Australian dollar surged higher strongly moving to the resistance level at 0.93 before consolidating for a week or so.

For several months either side of the New Year, the Australian dollar established and traded within a narrow range roughly between 0.88 and the previous resistance level at 0.90. Back in January the Australian dollar was able to rally higher pushing through the resistance at 0.90 to a one month high near 0.91, however, it quickly returned to more familiar territory below the resistance levels at 0.90 and 0.88. After showing some resilience in early December moving to a one week high above 0.9150, the AUD/USD spent the next two weeks turning around sharply and falling heavily down to a then three month low close to 0.88.

Australia's unemployment rate was steady at 5.8 percent in May, official figures show. The total number of people with jobs fell 4,800 to 11.565 million in May, according to seasonally adjusted figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday. The unemployment rate was expected to reach 5.9 percent in May, with 10,000 jobs added to the economy, according to an AAP survey of 13 economists. Full-time employment rose 22,200 to 8.068 million in May and part-time employment was down 27,000 to 3.496 million. The participation rate - those that have a job, are looking for work or are ready to start work - fell to 64.6 percent, from 64.7 percent in April.

(Daily chart / 4 hourly chart below)

AUD/USD June 13 at 00:30 GMT 0.9425 H: 0.9427 L: 0.9421

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.9220 0.9100 - 0.9380 0.9400 -
Click to enlarge

During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Friday, the AUD/USD is remaining steady around the recent resistance level around 0.9425 after surging higher from around 0.9370 over the last 24 hours. The Australian dollar was in a free-fall for a lot of last year falling close to 20 cents and it has done very well to recover slightly to well above 0.90 again. Current range: trading right around 0.9425.

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 0.9220 and 0.9100.

• Above: 0.9425.

OANDA's Open Position Ratios

(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for the AUD/USD among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)

The long position ratio for the AUD/USD has fallen sharply of late as the Australian dollar has rallied back to two-month highs. The trader sentiment remains in favour of short positions.

Economic Releases

  • 04:30 JP Capacity Utilisation (Apr)
  • 04:30 JP Industrial Production (Final) (Apr)
  • 09:00 EU Employment (Q1)
  • 09:00 EU Trade Balance (Apr)
  • 12:30 CA Manufacturing sales (Apr)
  • 12:30 US PPI (May)
  • 13:55 US Univ of Mich Sent. (Prelim.) (Jun)
  • JP BoJ MPC - Overnight Rate (Jun)

*All release times are GMT