Joe McCann
Long/short equity, growth, medium-term horizon

InterMune's A Strong Buy As Esbriet Finally Has The Data Physicians, Patients, And FDA Have Longed For

Overview:

Despite a significant run in the valuation of InterMune (NASDAQ:ITMN) on the back of positive Phase III ASCEND data in March, I have not seen much of an attempt to put definitive numbers around what this means for the market potential of Esbriet starting in 2015. I won't go into much analysis on approvability in this article, as I believe the market correctly assumes approval.

In this analysis I will:

    Lay out assumptions for a model analyzing pirfenidone's sales potential Explain my rationale for pricing in the US Build a detailed model for US sales of Esbriet based on a physician survey data post ATS Arrive at a DCF valuation for US sales Discuss my view on ...
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