Here’s some of the things we outlined back in October for what to expect in 2007 (and 2008).
A few things to comment on:
- Internet TV: It will be crunch time for the networks to establish footholds online. We’re talking “put your best stuff online or don’t bother.” That means “don’t bother with lame promos, that won’t fly,” put the stuff that kids upload onto YouTube and send around. No one takes a promo of The Office for example and sends it to 10 friends, but they will take a segment of SNL they found to be funny, for example.
As a producer of video web and wireless content, it’s not in my interest to say this. It is in my interest for the networks and offline video content producers to remain on the sideline… but the truth is that if the networks don’t move fast, what happened to magazines and newspapers in the 1994-2003 era will happen to the TV companies in 2006-10: they will regret not embracing the web and unleashing their content.
- RSS: I am not sure RSS will go mainstream “in a big way.” It will become more commonplace, and the RSS term might not even be considered because many websites embed it in the way they disseminate info, but the “big way” is a couple of years away.
- Search advertising: We cannot wait for Yahoo! (YHOO) and MSN Ad Center (MSFT) to take off, Google (GOOG) has helped marketing so much, but competition is good.
- Web Metrics: When it comes to advertising and the CPM, CPC or CPA… I think it is important to break up the market into sub-sectors. In other words, advertisers have different objectives and each metric is used differently by various advertisers.
I don’t think yet that CPA (Cost per Action, whereby advertiser pays when a consumer makes a pre-determined action) will take off in 2007. The reason is that publishers are getting some leverage once again in terms of real estate and marketers do see a limited number of venues to get decent traffic.
We’re not saying that CPA will not become more commonplace at some point, but I think in 2007 CPC (Cost per Click, whereby advertiser pays when a consumer clicks on an ad) will level off as marketers develop better techniques and realize that not all traffic is valuable to them.
Lastly, I don’t see CPM (Cost per Thousands of Ad Impressions, whereby advertiser pays when an ad is displayed) will go anywhere because advertisers will be sending more and more money to the Web, driving prices up.
Disclaimer: I own Yahoo! shares