By Kenny Fisher
USD/CAD is listless on Tuesday, as the pair continues to trade in the mid-1.07 range early in the North American session. The loonie has enjoyed an excellent June, gaining over two cents against its US counterpart. On the release front, we'll get at two key US releases, CB Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales, the second key housing event this week. There are no Canadian releases until Friday.
Canadian releases look strong last week, highlighted positive inflation and retail sales numbers on Friday. Core CPI and CPI both posted gains of 0..5%, beating their estimates of 0.2%. Core Retail Sales improved to 0.7%, surpassing the forecast of 0.4%. Finally, Retail Sales jumped 1.1% last month, crushing the estimate of 0.4%. The Canadian dollar took advantage of the solid releases, as the currency trades at its highest levels since January.
There was positive economic news out of the US on Thursday, as Unemployment Claims dipped to 312 thousand last week, beating the estimate of 316 thousand. As well, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, which has been on the upswing for most of 2014, continued the trend and improved to 17.8 points, crushing the estimate of 14.3. This was the index's strongest reading since last August, and points to a manufacturing sector which is expanding in order to keep up with increasing demand.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve continued to taper to its QE program, reducing the scheme by $10 billion, to $35 billion/month. If all goes as planned, the Fed could wind up QE in the fall. The Fed also hinted that interest rates will continue to stay low for the foreseeable future, which likely means that we won't see any rate hikes before the first quarter of 2015. With regard to economic activity, the Fed noted that the recovery is continuing, but it reduced its forecast of economic growth to 2.1-2.3%, down from an earlier forecast of around 2.9 percent. The bottom line? There were no dramatic items in the Fed statement, with one analyst describing current Fed policy as "steady as she goes". The perception that US interest rates will remain at ultra-low levels has weighed on the US dollar, and has helped the Canadian dollar hold its own this week.
USD/CAD for Tuesday, June 24, 2014
USD/CAD June 24 at 13:50 GMT
USD/CAD 1.0734 H: 1.0737 L: 1.0716
- The pair has shown little movement throughout the day.
- 1.0775 is a weak resistance line. 1.0852 is the next resistance level.
- 1.0706 is an immediate support level. This is followed by 1.0678, which was last tested in early January.
- Current range: 1.0706 to 1.0775
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.0706, 1.0678, 1.0572 and 1.0414
- Above: 1.0775, 1.0852, 1.0906 and 1.10
OANDA's Open Positions Ratio
USD/CAD ratio is almost unchanged in Tuesday trade. This is consistent with the pair's movement, as USD/CAD is little changed. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards the US dollar breaking out and moving higher.
- 14:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Estimate 83.6 points.
- 14:00 US New Home Sales. Estimate 442K.
- 14:00 US Richmond Manufacturing Index. Estimate 6 points.
- 14:00 US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew Speaks.
*Key releases are highlighted in bold
*All release times are GMT
This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.