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Summary

  • MIK is a large arts and crafts specialty retailer, the largest in North America based on store count.
  • Based on balance sheet analysis, MIK looks like a private-equity sponsored train wreck, but it's not because top-line revenue is growing, up 5.9% for Q1 '14 vs Q1 '13.
  • The P/E for the year ended January '14 is 15 and the corresponding price-to- sales ratio is .8.

Based in Irving, TX, The Michaels Companies (NASDAQ:MIK) scheduled a $500 million IPO on the Nasdaq with a market capitalization of $4.6 billion at a price range midpoint of $18 for Friday, June 27, 2014.

The full IPO calendar is available at IPOpremium.

SEC Documents

Manager, Co-Managers: J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Barclays, Deutsche Bank Securities, BofA Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo Securities

Joint Managers: Guggenheim Securities, Macquarie Capital, Nomura, Piper Jaffray, Raymond James, Stephens, SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Ramirez, Telsey Advisory Group, The Williams Capital Group

End of lockup (180 days): Wednesday, December 24, 2014

End of 40-day quiet period: Wednesday, August 6, 2014

Summary

MIK is a large arts and crafts specialty retailer, the largest in North America based on store count.

48% of total net sales in fiscal 2013, are only available at Michaels, under MIK's private brands.

Valuation

Glossary

Valuation Ratios

Mrkt Cap (MM)

Price /Sls

Price /Erngs

Price /BkVlue

Price /TanBV

% offered in IPO

annualizing May 3 qtr

Michaels Companies (The)

$3,654

0.9

19.9

-1.6

-1.3

14%

Jan 31 2014 yr

.

0.8

15.0

Conclusion

Consider these MIK stats:

Market cap: $3.6 billion
Total debt: $3.2 billion

Accumulated deficit: -$2.9 billion
Per share dilution to new IPO investors: -$32.11

Price-to-tangible book value: -1.3

Based on balance sheet analysis, MIK looks like a private-equity sponsored train wreck, but it's not because top-line revenue is growing, up 5.9% for Q1 '14 vs Q1 '13.

The P/E for the year ended January '14 is 15 and the corresponding price-to- sales ratio is .8.

Those are enough positives for institutions to add MIK to a segment of their portfolios.

The rating on MIK is neutral plus.

To put the conclusions and observations in context, the following is reorganized, edited and summarized from the full S-1 referenced above.

Business

MIK is a large arts and crafts specialty retailer.

Largest in North American based on store count

With 1,263 stores (consisting of 1,145 Michaels stores and 118 Aaron Brothers stores) as of May 31, 2014 and $4.6 billion in sales in fiscal 2013, Michaels is the largest arts and crafts specialty retailer in North America based on store count.

MIK also operates a market-leading vertically-integrated custom framing business.

Arts & craft experience

With helpful store associates and a broad selection of merchandise combined with compelling in-store events and online content, MIK believes it offers the most complete arts and crafts experience and are the preferred destination in the industry.

MIK carries a broad and deep assortment of approximately 36,000 stock-keeping units ("SKUs") in arts, crafts, scrapbooking, floral, framing, home décor, seasonal offerings and children's hobbies that enable it to satisfy the diverse needs of its customers.

MIK has also developed a robust online platform which promotes social networking, and includes expert tips, project ideas, marketing content and information on upcoming store events.

In recent years, MIK has capitalized on its market-leading scale to create a team and infrastructure dedicated to designing, sourcing and delivering high quality, on-trend merchandise, including a growing number of products under its portfolio of private brands.

Private branded products

MIK's private branded products, which represented approximately 48% of total net sales in fiscal 2013, are only available at Michaels and allows MIK to further differentiate its merchandise while enhancing product margins.

MIK is also able to use its scale and market leadership to identify and secure exclusive third party products. MIK believes its compelling store experience and broad product offering distinguishes it from its competitors and position Michaels as the leading brand that defines arts and crafts.

Dividend Policy

No dividends are planned.

Competition

MIK competes with many different types of retailers and classifies its competition within the following categories:

Mass merchandisers. This category includes companies such as Wal-Mart Stores, Inc., Target Corporation, and other mass merchandisers. These retailers typically dedicate only a small portion of their selling space to a limited selection of home décor, arts and crafts supplies, and seasonal merchandise, but they do seek to capitalize on the latest trends by stocking products that are complimentary to those trends and their current merchandise offerings. These mass merchandisers generally have limited customer service staffs with minimal amounts of experience in crafting projects.

Multi-store chains. This category includes several multi-store chains, each operating more than 100 stores, and comprises: Hobby Lobby Stores, Inc., which operates approximately 620 stores in 47 states; Jo-Ann Stores, Inc., which operates approximately 790 stores in 49 states; and A.C. Moore Arts & Crafts, Inc., which operates approximately 140 stores primarily in the Eastern United States. MIK believes all of these chains are significantly smaller than Michaels with respect to net sales.

Small, local specialty retailers. This category includes local independent arts and crafts retailers and custom framing shops. Typically, these are single-store operations managed by the owner. These stores generally have limited resources for advertising, purchasing, and distribution. Many of these stores have established a loyal customer base within a given community and compete based on relationships and customer service.

Internet. This category includes all internet-based retailers that sell arts and crafts merchandise, completed projects and custom framing online. MIK's Internet competition is inclusive of those companies discussed in the categories above, as well as others that may only sell products online. These retailers provide consumers with the ability to more easily search and compare products and prices compared to visiting a physical store. These sellers generally offer a wide variety of products but do not offer product expertise or project advice.

5% stockholders

Michaels Holdings LLC 92.9%

Highfields Capital Management LP and related funds 6.2%

Use of proceeds

MIK expects to net $466 million from its IPO. Proceeds are allocated as follows:

to redeem $466 million of the Holdco Notes.

MIK also intends to use cash on hand to pay the applicable make-whole premium of $5 million (1% of the principal amount of the Holdco Notes being redeemed).

The Holdco Notes were issued in July 2013 and mature in August 2018. The interest rate on the Holdco Notes is 7.50% per annum with respect to cash interest and 8.25% per annum with respect to PIK Interest, which is the cash interest rate plus 75 basis points.

Net proceeds of the Holdco Note issuance were used to pay a cash dividend, distribution and other payments to its equity and equity award holders and pay related fees and expenses.

Disclaimer: This MIK IPO report is based on a reading and analysis of MIL's S-1 filing, which can be found here, and a separate, independent analysis by IPOdesktop.com. There are no unattributed direct quotes in this article.

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. The author wrote this article themselves, and it expresses their own opinions. The author is not receiving compensation for it. The author has no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Source: IPO Preview: The Michaels Companies