5 Global Dividend Stocks Aim For 14.5% To 176% June Upsides

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 |  Includes: APSA, BSMX, CIG, EC, FLY, GA, ORAN, SAN, SID, VALE, VOD
by: Fredrik Arnold

Summary

6 top Global SML dividend dog stocks showed world class 1 yr. analyst mean target price upsides averaging 49.24% as of June 24. One plotted 21.86% downside as bear bait.

Top ten Global SML Dividend dogs by yield mixed down while Dow dogs were bullish since May.

Analysts projected average 53.7% 1 yr. net gains for top 6 SML Global stocks as of June 2015. One showed a 18.4% loss.

Consider SID; VOD; VALE; BSMX; FLY; EC; GA as starting points for your Global SML dog dividend stock purchase/sale research for July.

Global dividend stock prices from Yahoo! Finance tallied as of market closing June 24 were compared with analyst mean target gains one year hence. The results showcased 6 stocks sporting 49.24% average price upsides. These included three basic materials firms, two financial firms, one telecom, and one service firm.

This report presumed yield (dividend / price) dividend dog methodology applied to any index and compared that index side by side with the Dow. Below, Arnold top Global dividend dog selections for June were disclosed step by step. Five actionable conclusions were drawn.

Actionable Conclusion (1) 6 Global Dividend Dogs Pursued 9.25% to 178% Upsides for June While 1 Cast Nearly A 22% Downside

The chart above used one year mean target price set by brokerage analysts multiplied by the number of shares in a $1k investment to compare six Global stocks showing the highest upside price potential into 2015 out of 20 selected by yield. The number of analysts providing price estimates was noted after the name for each stock. Three to nine analysts were considered optimal for a valid mean target price estimate.

Seeking Alpha reader requests prompted this series of index-specific articles reporting dividend yield plus price upside results for these indices: Dow 30; S&P 500 & Aristocrats; Russell 2000 & 1000; NASDAQ 100; Champions, Contenders, & Challengers Combined; Global. Bonus reports covered Sin stocks, Sindex AllStars, and Sector Leaders.

Thirty For the Money

Bargain stocks to buy and hold for at least one year as reported below were termed dogs because they were all selected based on Michael B. O'Higgins book "Beating The Dow" (HarperCollins, 1991). O' Higgins revealed how high yielding stocks whose prices increased (and whose dividend yields therefore decreased) could be sold off once a year to sweep gains and reinvest the seed money into higher yielding stocks in the same index, now named Dogs of the Dow. His system works to find bargains in any collection of dividend paying stocks. Utilizing analyst price upside estimates expanded the universe to include popular growth equities, if desired.

Dog Metrics Gauged Ten Top Global Stocks

Thirty small, mid, and large cap Global equities were culled by yield from 277 common and preferred choices for this article. Small cap firms showed $300M to $2B; mid cap showed $2B to $10B; large showed over $10B in market capitalization.

Ten top global dividend stocks that showed the biggest dividend yields June 24 per Yahoo Finance data represented just four of nine sectors: financial; utilities; technology; services.

The list was led by five of seven financial firms, Santander Mexico Fincl Gp SAB deCV ADR [Mexico] (NYSE:BSMX) was tops. The other six financials placed second, through fifth, ninth, and tenth: Alto Palermo S.A. [Argentina] (NASDAQ:APSA); Banco Santander, S.A. [Spain] (NYSE:SAN); Barclays Bank Plc ADR (Sponsored) Pref Shs Ser 5 [U.K.] (BCD-PD); HSBC Holdings Plc ADR Ser A Rep 1/40 Pfd Ser A [U.K.] (HSEA); Royal Bank of Scotland Group Non-Cumulative Dollar Preference Shares Series M [U.K.] (RBS-PM); Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc [U.K.] (RBS-PR).

A lone utility sector dog, Companhia Energetica de Minas Gerais [Brazil] (NYSE:CIG) placed sixth. One telecom firm, Orange [France Telecom] (NYSE:ORAN) was seventh. A single services firm, Fly Leasing Ltd. [Ireland] (NYSE:FLY) was eighth to complete the top ten global dogs by yield.

Dividend vs. Price Results Compared to Dow Dogs

Relative strengths of the top ten Global dogs by yield as of market close 6/24/2014 compared to those of the Dow are shown in the graphs and charts below. Projected annual dividend history from $10,000 invested as $1k in each of the ten highest yielding stocks and the total single share prices of those ten stocks created the data points shown in blue for dividend and green for price.

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Actionable Conclusion (2): Global Dogs Mixed Down As Dow Dogs Charged

Global dividend payers as of June 24 displayed falling dividend from $10k invested as $1k in each of the top ten stocks while their aggregate single share price dropped to signal a mixed down move. Dividend fell at a rate of 8.5% after May while total single share price dropped 18% for that period. The change was mostly attributable to weak dividends dropping ex-dogs out of the top ten.

Meanwhile, Dow dogs romped bullishly by showing lower annual dividend from $10k invested as $1K in each of the top ten Dow dogs, dropping 2% since May, while aggregate single share price increased 1.7%. As a result, the Dow dogs overbought condition (in which aggregate single share price of the ten exceeded projected annual dividend from $10k invested as $1k each in those ten) swelled. The overhang was $145 or 38% for January; retreated to $125 or 33% in February; swelled to $149 or 40% in March; expanded to $173 or 47% in April; shrank to $170 or 46% come May; swelled to $192 or 53% for June. Recent frolic by the Dow was triggered by general price rises notably by INTC & CSCO.

To quantify top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provide a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high yield "dog" metric, analyst mean price target estimates provided another tool to dig out bargains.

Actionable Conclusion (3): Wall St. Wizard Wisdom Wrested 19.5% 1 yr. Net Gain from Top 20 Global June Dogs

Top 20 dogs on the Global stock list were graphed below to show relative strengths by dividend and price as of June 24, 2014 and those projected by analyst mean price target estimates to the same date in 2015.

A hypothetical $1000 investment in each equity was divided by the current share price to find the number of shares purchased. The shares number was then multiplied by projected annual per share dividend amounts to find the dividend return. Thereafter the analyst mean target price was used to gauge the stock price upsides and net gains including dividends less broker fees as of 2014.

Historic prices and actual dividends paid from $20,000 invested as $1k in each of the highest yielding stocks and the aggregate single share prices of those twenty stocks divided by 2 created data points for 2014. Projections based on estimated increases in dividend amounts from $1000 invested in the twenty highest yielding stocks and aggregate one year analyst target share prices from Yahoo Finance divided by 2 created the 2015 data points green for price and blue for dividend.

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Yahoo projected a 5.8% lower dividend from $10K invested in this group while aggregate single share price was projected to increase by over 4.5% in the coming year. The number of analysts contributing to the mean target price estimate for each stock was noted in the next to the last column on the charts. Three to nine analysts was considered optimal for a valid projection estimate. Estimates provided by one analyst were not applied (n/a).

A beta (risk) ranking for each stock was provided in the far right column on the above chart. A beta of 1 meant the stock's price would move with the market. Less than 1 showed lower than market movement. Higher than 1 showed greater than market movement. A negative beta number indicated the degree of a stock price movement opposite of market direction.

Actionable Conclusion (4): Analysts Forecast 6 Global DiviDogs To Net 13.5% to 179.6% By June 2015

Two of the six top dividend yielding global dogs were verified as being among the eight gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1 year target prices. So this month the dog strategy for this collection as graded by Wall St. wizards was 33% accurate.

Probable profit generating trades were revealed by Thompson/First Call in Yahoo Finance into 2015:

Companhia Siderurgica Nacional (NYSE:SID) netted $1,796.28, based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from six analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 96% greater than the market as a whole.

Vodafone Group (NASDAQ:VOD) netted $431.79, based on dividend plus mean target price estimates from four analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 38% less than the market as a whole.

Compania Vale Do Rio (NYSE:VALE) netted $351.65 based on estimates from twenty-five analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 36% greater than the market as a whole.

Santander Mexico Fincl Gp SAB deCV netted $313.54 based on estimates from five analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 84% less than the market as a whole.

Fly Leasing Ltd. netted $195.13 based on estimates from seven analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 26% less than the market as a whole.

Ecopetrol SA (NYSE:EC) netted $135.10 based on estimates from twelve analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 28% less than the market as a whole.

Average net gain in dividend and price was 53.7% on $6k invested as $1k in each of these six Global dogs. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 7% less than the market as a whole.

Actionable Conclusion (5): (Bear Alert) Analysts Forecast GA DiviDog to Post Net Loss of 18.4% By June 2015

A probable losing trade revealed by analysts reported by Thompson/First Call in Yahoo Finance for 2015 was:

Giant Interactive Group (NYSE:GA) was projected to lose $184.41 based on dividend and a mean target price estimate from four analysts including $20 of broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 113% more than the market as a whole.

Net gain and loss estimates above did not factor-in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible starting points for your Global dog dividend stock purchase/sale research process. These were not recommendations.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.dividend.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by Thompson/First Call in Yahoo Finance.

Disclosure: The author is long CSCO, CVX, GE, INTC, MCD, MSFT, PFE, T, VZ. The author wrote this article themselves, and it expresses their own opinions. The author is not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). The author has no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.