Week In FX Americas: All Eyes On Thursday Data

by: Dean Popplewell

By Alfonso Esparza

The EUR/USD has been close to 1.36 this week. The United States released mixed economic indicators. Unemployment claims were slightly lower, which boosts some confidence ahead of July 3rd's non-farm payroll release. The NFP figure will be released a day early of the regular schedule because of the Independence Day 4th of July holiday on Friday.

The biggest shock came this week with an expected 1.8% decline due to bad weather - the first quarter GDP number was released for a contraction of 2.9%. The EUR did not seize the opportunity to make much inroads again on the USD, as there were some negative releases in Europe as well. Germany continues to be the engine of growth in the EU, but France and Italy continue to sound warning bells.


Canada's manufacturing sector showed a drop in inflation in May, indicative of decreased activity in this important industry. The Raw Materials Price Index has been dropping, and the downward trend continued in May, as the index came in at -0.4%, way off the estimate of +1.3%. The Industrial Product Price Index followed suit with a reading of -0.5%, compared to the estimate of +0.4%. These are the first Canadian releases of the week, and the loonie has posted gains this week against the US dollar thanks to some weak US numbers, notably the Q1 GDP.

The CAD continues to appreciate versus the USD and has taken advantage of positive commodity prices and USD negative economic releases. The USD/CAD started the week at 1.0854 and will finish in the vicinity of 1.0750.

Next Week For Americas:

July 3rd is a release heavy day. That's the date the U.S. non-farm payrolls report will be issued one day earlier than usual because of Friday's July 4 holiday. Also on July 3, Canada and the U.S. will publish their respective trade numbers, and there will be a European Central Bank rate decision and press conference. As if that wasn't enough data to make an investor's head spin, the U.K. services purchasing managers index (PMI), an American jobless claims report, and the Institute of Supply Management's non-manufacturing PMI are all due on the same date.