Modest Pharma Growth Forecast for 2011

Includes: IXJ, IYH
by: Pharmalot

The value of the global pharmaceutical market is expected to grow anywhere from 5 percent to 7 percent next year, reaching $880 billion, up from the 4 percent to 5 percent that’s expected for this year, according to a new report from IMS Health.

Despite the uptick, IMS continues to foresee a somewhat sluggish outlook due to what the market research termed “underlying constraints” on developed markets. Specifically, this refers to the looming patent expirations of numerous big-selling drugs and increased efforts by payers to limit their spending. At the same time, so-called emerging markets are expected to blossom.

To underscore the differences, IMS offers these numbers: 17 emerging countries are forecast to grow at a 15 percent to 17 percent rate in 2011, to nearly $180 billion, thanks to greater government spending on healthcare and broader public and private healthcare funding. In particular, China is predicted to grow by 25 percent to 27 percent to more than $50 billion next year.

By contrast, Japan is forecast to grow 5 percent to 7 percent in 2011, and five major European markets - Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the UK - collectively will grow just 1 percent to 3 percent. Canada will do the same. The US will remain the world’s biggest market, but growth will hit 3 percent to 5 percent next year, as sales are forecast to hit $330 billion, not including the impact of off-invoice discounts or rebates (read more in the IMS statement).

Disclosure: None