The iPhone has proved to be a run-away success for Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) since its launch in 2007. iPhone’s global mobile phone market share has risen steadily from around 0.3% in 2007 to 2% in 2009 . We expect iPhone to continue with its growth momentum, eating into market share of players like Research in Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM), Motorola (NYSE:MOT), Nokia (NYSE:NOK) and Google (NASDAQ:GOOG).
We estimate that the iPhone constitutes around 47% of the $361 Trefis price estimate for Apple’s stock, about 25% above the current market price of $289.
iPhone’s mobile phone market share is a function of the penetration level of smartphones in the mobile phone market and iPhone’s market share within the smartphone segment. Consumers are getting more technologically savvy and fashion conscious, which means there’s a growing market for smartphones. Increasing use of email by both enterprise and consumer customers as a primary means of communication is driving demand for smartphones like the iPhone.
The average of Trefis member forecasts for iPhone’s Market Share in Mobile Phones indicate an increase from 4.3% in 2010 to 13.5% by 2016, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from 3% in 2010 to 11% by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply an upside of 11% to the Trefis price estimate for Apple’s stock.
You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Apple’s stock to iPhone’s Market Share in Mobile Phones.
1. We have calculated iPhone’s Market Share in Mobile Phones as: iPhones Sold / Global Mobile Phone Units. Apple reports total number of iPhones sold in its SEC filings. We have taken data on Global Mobile Phone Units sold from publicly released information by Gartner.
Disclosure: No positions