Seeking Alpha
Currencies, macro, fixed income
Profile| Send Message|
( followers)  

By Kenny Fisher

AUD/USD has posted modest gains on Tuesday, as the pair trades slightly above the 0.94 line early in the North American session. The Aussie received some help from NAB Business Confidence, which improved in June. In the US, employment numbers continue to impress, as JOLTS Job Openings jumped last month.

Australian business confidence looked strong in May, as the NAB release rose to 8 points, its highest level since January. The NAB Business Confidence is a key indicator, as this usually translates into more spending, hiring and investment, which is critical for economic growth. The week got off to a strong start as ANZ Job Advertisements, an important gauge of employment activity, jumped 4.3% in June, a four-month high.

US employment numbers continue to look sharp. On Tuesday, JOLTS Job Openings jumped to 4.64 million, easily beating the estimate of 4.53 million. This follows excellent figures from Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate. Nonfarm Payrolls, one of the most important indicators, bounced back in June with a strong gain of 288 thousand new jobs. This crushed the estimate of 214 thousand. There was more good news from the Unemployment Rate, which continues to move downward. The indicator dipped to 6.1%, its lowest level since September 2008. The strong employment numbers are sure to increase speculation about an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, and remarks by Fed policymakers will be under the market microscope.

AUD/USD for Tuesday, July 8, 2014

AUD/USD July 8 at 12:50 GMT

AUD/USD 0.9408 H: 0.9415 L: 0.9471

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.9119 0.9229 0.9361 0.9446 0.9617 0.9757

  • AUD/USD has posted small gains throughout the day.
  • On the downside, 0.9361 has some breathing room as the pair trades at higher levels. There is stronger support at 0.9229.
  • 0.9446 is the next resistance line. This is followed by resistance at 0.9446.

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.9361, 0.9229, 0.9119 and 0.9000
  • Above: 0.9446, 0.9617, 0.9757 and 0.9842

OANDA's Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is pointing to gains in long positions in Tuesday, continuing the trend from a day earlier. This is consistent with the movement of the pair, as the Australian dollar has posted modest gains. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards the Australian dollar continuing to post gains.

AUD/USD Fundamentals

  • 1:30 Australian NAB Business Confidence. Actual 8 points.
  • 11:30 US NFIB Small Business Index. Estimate 97.3 points. Actual 95.0 points.
  • 14:00 US JOLTS Job Openings. Estimate 4.53M. Actual 4.64M.
  • 17:45 US FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks.
  • 19:00 US Consumer Credit. Estimate 21.3B.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold.

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Source: AUD/USD: Aussie Posts Gains On Strong Business Confidence