Yield (dividend / price) results from here verified by Yahoo Finance for small, mid, & large cap Financial stocks as of market closing prices as of July 8 compared with analyst 1-yr target projections led to four actionable conclusions discussed below.
Wall Street Wizard Weights
One-year mean target price set by brokerage analysts multiplied by the number of shares in a $1k investment were used to compare ten stocks showing the highest upside price potential into 2015 out of 20 selected by yield. The number of analysts providing price estimates was noted after the name for each stock. Three to nine analysts was considered optimal for a valid mean target price estimate.
Actionable Conclusion (1) Ten July Financial Dividend Dogs Track 4% to 14% Upsides
Thirty For the Money
Since late 2011 this report series has applied dog dividend methodology to uncover possible buy opportunities in each of eight major market sectors listed by Yahoo Finance: basic materials (BasMats), consumer goods (ConGo), financials (Fins), healthcare (Heal), industrial goods (IndiGo), services (Svcs), technology (Tec), and utilities (Utes). In the past year the series expanded to report (1) dividend yield; (2) price upside; (3) net gain results based on analyst 1 yr. target projections.
Dog dividend methodology is based on Michael B. O'Higgins book "Beating The Dow" (HarperCollins, 1991), which revealed how high yielding stocks whose prices increased (and whose dividend yields therefore decreased) could be sold off once a year to sweep gains and reinvest the seed money into higher yielding stocks in the same index. Now named Dogs of the Dow, O'Higgins system also works to find bargains in any collection of dividend paying stocks. Utilizing analyst price upside estimates has expanded the stock lists to include popular growth equities, if desired.
Dog Metrics Screened Financial Stocks by Yield
Top ten financial sector dogs showing the biggest dividend yields by this screen as of July 8 represented five industries: (1) mortgage investment; (2) residential REIT; (3) diversified REIT; (4) asset management; (5) closed end fund - debt. Top financial sector stock by yield, Western Asset Mortgage Capital Corp (NYSE:WMC) was one of two Mortgage Investment firms. The other, Ellington Financial LLC (NYSE:EFC), placed seventh. The best of four residential REITs, CYS Investments (NYSE:CYS) was second dog. Others in that industry placed third, through fifth: Resource Capital (NYSE:RSO); New York Mortgage Trust Inc (NASDAQ:NYMT); Armour Residential REIT (NYSE:ARR). Two Diversified REITs took the sixth and eighth positions: American Capital Mortgage Investment Corp (NASDAQ:MTGE), and AG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. (NYSE:MITT). One business development company, listed as an asset management firm, Prospect Capital Corporation (NASDAQ:PSEC), placed ninth. Finally, a business development company, listed as closed end fund - debt by Yahoo! Finance, TICC Capital Corp. (NASDAQ:TICC), in tenth place completed the top ten financial dogs by yield.
Financial Sector Top Dog Dividend vs. Price Results Compared to Dow Index Dogs
Graphs below compared relative strengths of the top ten financial sector dogs by yield as of market close 7/8/2014 with those of the Dow industrials index. Annual dividend history from $10,000 invested as $1k in each of the ten highest yielding stocks along with the total single share price of those ten stocks made the data points shown in green for price and blue for dividends.
Actionable Conclusion (2): Financial Dogs Cowered As Dow Dogs Ran Bullish Into July
Financial sector dividend payers as of July 8 showed scars as they retreated from a bear attack. Dividend from $10k invested as $1k in each of the top ten stocks went up, while aggregate single share price of those ten fell. Dividend increased at a rate of 3% since June while total single share price fell 2.85% for the period.
Dow dogs frolicked as projected annual dividend from $10k invested as $1K in each of the top ten declined 1.13% since June. At the same time aggregate single share price inclined 3.85% to confirm the bullish turn. The Dow dogs overbought condition in which aggregate single share price of the ten exceeded projected annual dividend from $1k invested in each of the ten increased. The overhang of $111 or 29% in December/January, grew to $132 or 35% in February, expanded to $136 or 36% in March, widened again to $180 or 49% for April, retreated to $167 or 43% in May, expanded to $193 or 53% for June, then swelled to $219 or 60% in July to make the widest gap in two years. Much of the recent move was attributable to general price rises most notably by INTC (which fell out of the top ten in late June), MRK, & CSCO.
To quantify top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provide a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high yield "dog" metric, analyst mean price target estimates provide another tool to dig out bargains.
Actionable Conclusion (3): Wall Street Wizards Willed A 14% Net Gain from Top 20 Financial Dogs Come July 2015
Top twenty dogs in the financial sector were graphed below to show relative strengths by dividend and price as of July 8, 2014 and those projected by analyst mean price target estimates to the same date in 2015.
A hypothetical $1000 investment in each equity was divided by the current share price to find the number of shares purchased. The shares number was then multiplied by projected annual per share dividend amounts to find the dividend return. Thereafter the analyst mean target price was used to gauge the stock price upsides and net gains including dividends less broker fees as of 2015.
Historic prices and actual dividends paid from $20,000 invested as $1k in each of the highest yielding stocks and the aggregate single share prices of those twenty stocks divided by 2 created data points for 2014. Projections based on estimated dividend amounts from $1000 invested in the twenty highest yielding stocks and aggregate one year analyst target share prices from Yahoo Finance divided by 2 created the 2015 data points green for price and blue for dividend.
Yahoo projected a 3.8% lower dividend from $10K invested in this group while aggregate single share price was projected to increase by nearly 5.3% in the coming year. The number of analysts contributing to the mean target price estimate for each stock was noted in the next to the last column on the charts. Three to nine analysts was considered optimal for a valid projection estimate. Estimates provided by one analyst were not applied (n/a).
A beta (risk) ranking for each stock was provided in the far right column on the above chart. A beta of 1 meant the stock's price would move with the market. Less than 1 showed lower than market movement. Higher than 1 showed greater than market movement. A negative beta number indicated the degree of a stock price movement opposite market direction.
Actionable Conclusion (4): Analysts Forecast Financial DiviDog Net Gains of 15.5% to Over 25% by July 2015
Eight of the ten top dividend yielding financial dogs were verified as being among the ten gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1 year target prices. So this month the dog strategy for the financial sector as graded by Wall St. wizards was 80% accurate.
Ten probable profit generating trades revealed by Yahoo Finance for 2015 were:
American Capital Mortgage netted $252.54 based on a mean target price estimate from eight analysts combined with projected annual dividend less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 53% less than the market as a whole.
Western Asset Mortgage netted $242.89 based on estimates from six analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 35% less than the market as a whole.
Resource Capital netted $118.65, based on dividends plus mean target price estimates from two analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 18% less than the market as a whole.
Ellington Financial LLC netted $201.75 based on dividends plus a mean target price estimate from six analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 42% less than the market as a whole.
Prospect Capital Corporation netted $192.06 based on dividends plus mean target price estimates by ten analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 17% less than the market as a whole.
TICC Capital Corp netted $178.36 based on dividends plus the mean of annual price estimates from four analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 24% less than the market as a whole.
Pennymac Mortgage (NYSE:PMT) netted $174.18 based on a mean target price estimate from nine analysts combined with projected annual dividend less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 40% less than the market as a whole.
New York Mortgage Trust Inc. netted $167.17, based on dividends plus mean target price estimates from SIX analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 66% less than the market as a whole.
CYS Investments, Inc. netted $167.00, based on dividends plus mean target price estimates from twelve analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 65% less than the market as a whole.
Dynex Capital (NYSE:DX) netted $155.50, based on dividend plus mean target price estimates from eight analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 15% less than the market as a whole.
The average net gain in dividend and price was over 19.6% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these nine dogs. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 37% less than the market as a whole.
The net gain estimates above did not factor-in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.
Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible starting points for your index dog dividend stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.
Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in Yahoo! Finance.
Disclosure: The author is long ARR, FSC, CSCO, CVX, GE, INTC, MCD, MSFT, PFE, T, VZ. The author wrote this article themselves, and it expresses their own opinions. The author is not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). The author has no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.