Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Monday July 14.
Piggyback on Peltz: Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE:BK), State Street (NYSE:STT), Legg Mason (NYSE:LM), PepsiCo (NYSE:PEP), Mondelez (NASDAQ:MDLZ), Kraft Foods (NASDAQ:KRFT), Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A), (NYSE:BRK.B), Dupont (NYSE:DD), Ingersoll-Rand (NYSE:IR)
"Tonight I'm going to ask you to piggyback on the investment of a big name activist money manager," said Cramer. Usually this "piggybacking" is "anathema" to Cramer's strategy, which focuses on making one's own decisions on stocks based on homework. In addition, following fund managers can be hazardous, because regular investors don't always have all of the information the high-profile investor does.
However, Cramer has noticed that those who bought after Nelson Peltz's purchases have consistently seen upside. On the announcement that Peltz has built up a 2.5% stake in Bank of New York Mellon (BK) and is discussing restructuring in the bank, the stock jumped 3% and can go higher. BK is a "custodial" bank, safeguarding assets of money managers and other clients. The bank isn't troubled, but it has been lagging it competitors like State Street (STT). Peltz's Trian Partners took a stake in State Street and urged it to spin off its money management unit, and although management did not do this, it did take Peltz's advice in cutting costs. When Peltz left his position 2 years later, State Street had doubled. Since the time Peltz joined Legg Mason's (LM) Board of Directors in 2012, the stock has rallied 97%.
Cramer thinks the upside could be "enormous" for BK. Peltz is likely to advise the bank to sell off units, such as the corporate trust or asset management business. Last year, Peltz laid out plans for Mondelez (MDLZ), PepsiCo (PEP) and Dupont (DD), which returned 28.7%, 10% and 17% respectively. Peltz joined the board of Ingersoll-Rand (IR) in 2012, and the stock has jumped 71% since then. Heinz gave a 75% gain from the time Peltz took a position in 2006 to the time it was sold to Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), (BRK.B). Cramer thinks Nelson Peltz is definitely an exception to the rule of not piggybacking. Cramer would buy the stock ahead of Peltz's presentation at CNBC's Delivering Alpha Conference on Wednesday.
CEO Credibility Scale: The Container Store (NYSE:TCS), Tractor Supply (NASDAQ:TSCO), Lumber Liquidators (NYSE:LL), Family Dollar (NYSE:FDO). Other stocks discussed: Williams-Sonoma (NYSE:WSM), Restoration Hardware (NYSE:RH)
Cramer came up with a test to see if the CEOs' explanations for underperformance are to be believed. This "Mad Money Credibility Scale" was put to the test with various CEOs. The Container Store CEO, Kip Tindell, blamed a "retail funk," for lackluster results. Tindell tried to say the same thing earlier in the year, and retailers with strong results, including Williams-Sonoma (WSM) and Restoration Hardware (RH), were not complaining about this "funk." Cramer rates this excuse a 3; he believes the CEO believes this, but it is not convincing.
Tractor Supply (TSCO) gave a hideous pre-announcement. CEO Greg Sanfort said weather problems persisted but things were looking up, and data showed that sales were improving as the weather cleared. Cramer gives the stock an 8 on the credibility scale.
Lumber Liquidators (LL) came out with a negative pre-announcement with a predicted 7% decline in same store sales. CEO Robert Lynch said that traffic has been weaker in areas most affected by the winter weather and the improvement did not come as quickly as expected. He added that when consumers delay repairs, they tend to continue to delay them. Because of macro factors, Lynch said the decline could continue until next spring. The stock fell 25% on this announcement. Cramer gives Lynch the credibility rating of 2.
Family Dollar (FDO), which Cramer thinks is the worst-run of the dollar stores, reported its third straight earnings miss. CEO Howard Levine cited a difficult competitive environment and macro cuts suffered by low-income customers. Cramer thinks this explanation is "bogus," since other dollar stores are doing well, and it implies that serious macro reforms are needed to see improvement. Cramer noted that Levine has a history of "lousy excuses," and gives the CEO a 1 on the credibility scale.
Cramer's advice to CEOs: "Either stand and deliver or blame yourselves."
Bad Report Card for the Market: Boeing (NYSE:BA), URS Corp (NYSE:URS), Aecom (NYSE:ACM), Citigroup (NYSE:C), Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Gilead (NASDAQ:GILD), Kodiak Oil & Gas (NYSE:KOG), Whiting Petroleum (NYSE:WLL), Alcoa (NYSE:AA). Other stocks mentioned: SodaStream (NASDAQ:SODA), Charles River Labs (NYSE:CRL)
Cramer would give the market a bad report card if it were in grade school. The Dow climbed 112 points on Monday, but that is in spite of the clueless pupils on Wall Street. Cramer urged buying Boeing (BA) on weakness ahead of the Farnborough Air Show this week. He believed CEO Jim McNerny would reaffirm the strength of the aerospace cycle, that it has a backlog in orders and its defense problems are baked into the stock. "My support for Boeing fell on deaf ears," said Cramer. McNerny gave positive data that fuel savings in BA's new planes will drive demand, and the stock saw a huge gain.
URS Corp.(URS) got a takeover bid from Aecom (ACM) and rose 12%. Analysts were saying URS was overvalued and should be sold prior to this announcement. Aecom rallied 10% on the news. Citigroup (C) was written off, but it reported a strong quarter. Citi faced low expectations and confounded them. Facebook (FB) fell under a deluge of selling, and Cramer thought this was due to just a few huge sellers, and the sell-off was based on nothing. Sure enough, FB was driven back up.
Barclays upgraded Apple (AAPL) from Hold to Buy. The stock rose, but Cramer noticed the same analyst downgraded the stock at a lower level in February. Gilead (GILD) suffered from chatter about rival products as many gave up on the stock. However, the stock has risen significantly since then on the strength of its leading drug. Whiting Petroleum (WLL) announced it was buying Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG), and the acquirer jumped a few points, even as analysts on the street considered Kodiak overvalued. Cramer was urging viewers to buy Alcoa (AA) when it was a hated stock, and now the stock has doubled. Cramer thinks investors can benefit from the "slothfulness, indolence and downright idiocy" of the market.
Cramer took some calls:
SodaStream (SODA) is a "rumored" stock and tends to trade on chatter. He would wait for another takeover rumor and sell it.
Charles River Labs (CRL) is doing great work, but the earnings growth is inconsistent. It is alright, but it is not a "table pounder."
Cramer thinks Manitowoc (MTW) is a high-quality breakup story. It has a food business and a construction cranes segment. Cramer thinks the company could unlock value by splitting itself in two. Relational hedge fund has taken an 8.52% stake in the company and has suggested it spin off its food business. The stock jumped 10% after this announcement. The stock has returned 119% since Cramer first recommended it split up in 2012. Non-residential markets are heating up, and the crane business is now worth more than it was before. The company gets 60% of its revenues from cranes and 40% from the food business. Its crane business is cyclical, and these stocks are doing well now. Currently, MTW is missing out by not being a pure play on cranes. Cramer thinks both companies would be worth more separately than together, since the street prefers companies that are easy to understand. The crane business could be worth $3.5 billion and the food business would be worth $4.25 billion. Combined, this is a 32% premium to where it is currently trading. MTW's management has been reluctant to let go of its food business to counterbalance the crane segment, but Cramer thinks Relational and the street want the break up.
Cramer took some calls:
Chicago Bridge & Iron (NYSE:CBI) is a buy, given the consolidation in the industry.
Did Whiting Hear Footsteps?
"Did Whiting Petroleum hear footsteps?" asked Cramer, concerning Whiting's $6 billion takeover of Kodiak Oil & Gas. The latter ran up massively on takeover speculation, so didn't rise much on the announcement, but Whiting's stock rose 7%. A year ago, Kodiak tried to sell itself to Whiting. Before the deal was announced, Cramer would have predicted Whiting would be the takeover candidate, not Kodiak. "Could this deal be the poison pill that Whiting was looking for?" asked Cramer. He feels Whiting is undervalued, and he wouldn't be surprised if it has been attracting takeover bids.
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