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Summary

  • Record corn production is no longer expected for the 2014/15 marketing year due to a reduction in total harvested acres.
  • Projected average U.S. corn yield is expected to break 2009's record of 164.7 bushels per acre by 0.36%.
  • Cooler than average temperatures are expected in July and August, which match trends seen in years with above trend line yields.

Record corn production is no longer expected for the 2014/15 marketing year due to a reduction in total harvested acres, but the projected average U.S. corn yield is expected to break 2009's record of 164.7 bushels per acre by 0.36%. Cooler than average temperatures are expected in July and August, which match trends seen in years with above trend line yields, including 1972, 1979, 1982, 1994, 2004 and 2009. Mild temperatures in the upcoming weeks are extremely favorable for corn during the critical pollination period.

Harvested area of U.S. soybeans was significantly increased, according to the June 30th Acreage Report, to 84.1 million acres, which projects the 2014/15 crop at a record 3.800 billion bushels. Such a record crop would increase estimated ending stocks by 21.7%, the largest ending stocks since 2006/07.

Corn

U.S. corn ending stocks for the 2013/14 marketing year were projected 100 million bushels higher to 1.246 billion bushels, primarily due to decreased feed and residual use. Exports for U.S. corn in the 2013/14 marketing year were unchanged from last month, remaining at 1.900 billion bushels.

For the 2014/15 marketing year, U.S. corn ending stocks were projected to be 1.801 billion bushels due to another nearly record year of production. U.S. exports were estimated at 1.700 billion bushels with total usage of 13.335 billion bushels. Projected total production was estimated at 13.860 billion bushels. U.S. corn use for ethanol was estimated at 25 million bushels higher based on the pace of ethanol production to date. The 2014/15 season-average farm price for corn was estimated at $3.65 to $4.35 per bushel, compared to $4.35 to $4.55 per bushel for 2013/14.

U.S. Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) 2013/14

Grain

July 2014

Average Estimates

June 2014

Corn

1,246

1,316

1,146

Soybeans

140

132

125

Wheat

590

-

593

U.S. Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) 2014/15

Grain

July 2014

Average Estimates

Corn

1,801

1,807

Soybeans

415

417

Wheat

660

590

Soybeans

Estimated U.S. soybean exports for 2013/14 were increased 20 million bushels to 1.620 billion bushels. Ending stocks were increased 15 million bushels to 140 million bushels this month due to decreased residual usage more than offsetting increased crushing usage. The soybean stock-to-use ratio increased to 4.1%.

For the 2014/15 marketing year, U.S. soybean ending stocks were projected at 415 million bushels. Exports were estimated at 1.675 billion bushels with total usage of 3.541 billion bushels. The projected soybean yield was unchanged at 45.2 bushels per acre, but total production was increased to a record 3.800 billion bushels due to a 4.3% increase in harvested area. The 2014/15 season-average farm price for soybeans was estimated at $9.50 to $11.50 per bushel, compared to $13.00 per bushel for 2013/14.

Wheat

U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2013/14 were deceased by 3 million bushels to 590 million bushels primarily due to an increase in exports, which were increased to 1.182 billion bushels.

For the 2014/15 marketing year, U.S. wheat supplies were projected at 660 million bushels, a 26 million bushel increase from 2013/14 due to lower residual feed use and greater production. The 2014/15 all wheat average price was estimated at $6.00 to $7.20 per bushel.

Outlook

With the recent release of the USDA Grain Stocks and Acreage reports on June 30th, there was little surprising news in this month's WASDE report. July weather is one of the most crucial variables the USDA tracks to estimate crop production. Weather conditions throughout the next few weeks, as corn pollinates, will be vital to the overall yield outlook.

The August WASDE will incorporate, for the first time this year, a farmer survey and an objective yield survey to estimate production. The farmer survey is a questionnaire and the objective yield survey is based on actual randomly selected field tests.

Source: WASDE: No Longer Record Corn Production