Despite a 2.9% decline in GDP for the US economy in the 1Q of 2014, consensus estimates are for the US economy to expand by roughly 3% in 2014 with acceleration of growth beginning with 2Q GDP and continuing throughout the year. While the 1Q GDP number was adversely impacted by horrible weather conditions, mother nature was not the only cause of GDP contraction. Regardless, it seems to be a common view that GDP contraction was not indicative of a recession and that the 1Q reading was a mere blip in a growing economy.
Too many other data metrics are positive and improving for a recession to happen. Consumer confidence is improving, the labor market is improving, and interest rates,...
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