Weighing Machine
Long/short equity

Countrywide PLC: 11.5x Trough Earnings With Ample Buyback Capacity; 90-130% Upside

Shares of UK residential property services leader Countrywide PLC (OTC:CTYWY) have fallen 21% year-to-date and are down 33% from their all-time high. At today's price, Countrywide trades at just 11.5x 2014 consensus earnings despite the fact that 2014 housing transactions in the UK are expected to be 33% below their long-term (30 year) average. With a very low valuation and a strong balance sheet (nearly all debt will be paid off by the end of this year), a fast-growing lettings business (rental agency & property manager) and an eventual normalization of the housing market could drive shares significantly higher. Using relatively modest assumptions (discussed below), I expect shares could appreciate 90-130% within the next year or two. Even

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