10 Scary Charts: July 16, 2014 Update

Includes: DIA, GOVT, PLW, QQQ, SPY
by: Ted Kavadas


Displays ten long-term charts.

Charts depict various aspects of the economic situation.

Briefly comments upon the significance of these charts.

Please note this post is the latest update to a series of articles, the last being "10 Scary Charts: April 16, 2014 Update."

I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now - 61 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession - is especially notable.

These charts raise a lot of questions. As well, they highlight the "atypical" nature of our economic situation from a long-term historical perspective.

All of these charts are from the Federal Reserve, and represent the most recently updated data.

The following nine charts are from the St. Louis Federal Reserve:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Housing starts (last updated 6-17-14):

The Federal Deficit (last updated 3-14-14):

Federal Net Outlays (last updated 3-14-14):

State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 3-27-14):

Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 7-11-14):

Bank Credit - All Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 7-11-14):

M1 Money Multiplier (last updated 7-3-14):

Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated 7-3-14):

Labor Force Participation Rate (last updated 7-3-14):

This last chart is of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI, and its 3-month moving average CFNAI-MA3) and it depicts broad-based economic activity (last updated 6-23-14):

I will continue to update these charts on an intermittent basis as they deserve close monitoring.

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. The author wrote this article themselves, and it expresses their own opinions. The author is not receiving compensation for it. The author has no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.