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Summary

  • The whisper number is $1.50, four cents ahead of the analysts' estimate.
  • Harley-Davidson has a 65% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 32 of the 49 earnings reports for which we have data).
  • The overall average post earnings price move is "positive" (beat the whisper number and see strength, miss and see strength) when the company reports earnings.

Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) is expected to report earnings on Tuesday, July 22nd. The whisper number is $1.50, four cents ahead of the analysts' estimate and showing strong confidence from investors. Harley-Davidson has a 65% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 32 of the 49 earnings reports for which we have data).

Earnings history:

- Beat whisper: 32 qtrs
- Met whisper: 2 qtrs
- Missed whisper: 15 qtrs

Our primary focus is on post earnings price movement. Knowing how likely a stock's price will move following an earnings report can help you determine the best action to take (long or short). In other words, we analyze what happens when the company beats or misses the whisper number expectation.

The table below indicates the average post earnings price movement within a one and thirty trading day timeframe:

(click to enlarge)

The strongest price movement of +0.6% comes within ten trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and +2.9% within ten trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number. The overall average price move is 'positive' (beat the whisper number and see strength, miss and see strength) when the company reports earnings.

The table below indicates the most recent earnings reports and short-term price reaction:

(click to enlarge)

The company has reported earnings ahead of the whisper number in one of the past four quarters with a whisper number. In the comparable quarter last year, the company reported earnings two cents short of the whisper number. Following that report, the stock realized a 3% loss in one trading day. Last quarter, the company reported earnings fourteen cents ahead of the whisper number. Following that report, the stock realized a 2.1% loss in twenty trading days. Overall historical data indicates the company to be (on average within thirty trading days) a "positive" price reactor when the company reports earnings.

Enter your expectation and view more earnings information here, or let us know your expectation in the comments section below.

Since 1998, WhisperNumber.com has been tracking and publishing "crowd sourced estimates" for earnings. We call these earnings expectations whisper numbers. Our whisper numbers are gained from individual investors and traders just like you that have registered with our site. While the whisper number itself is an important part of our analysis, a company's "price reaction" to beating or missing the whisper number expectation is the key. On average, companies that exceed the whisper are "rewarded," while companies that miss are "punished" following an earnings report. Trading on whispers is a technical play on market psychology, rather than a bet on a company's fundamental strengths.

Source: Will Harley-Davidson Top The Whisper Number This Quarter?