By Stuart McPhee
AUD/USD for Monday, July 28, 2014
The Australian dollar is trading in a small range just below 0.9400 after reaching a three week high just shy of 0.9480 towards the end of last week. During the middle of last week it enjoyed a solid period which saw it surge higher through the resistance level at 0.9425 to the three week around 0.9480, before easing back towards that level. It started last week by slowly easing away from the resistance level around 0.9425 which continues to stand tall and play havoc with buyers. The Australian dollar enjoyed a solid surge higher reaching a new eight month high above 0.95 a few weeks ago, only to return most of its gains in very quick time to finish out that week. Since the middle of June the Australian dollar has made repeated attempts to break through the resistance level around 0.9425, however despite its best efforts it was rejected every time as the key level continued to stand tall, even though it has allowed the small excursion to above 0.95.
After the Australian dollar had enjoyed a solid surge in the first couple of weeks of June which returned it to the resistance level around 0.9425, it then fell sharply away from this level back to a one week low around 0.9330 before rallying higher yet again. Its recent surge higher to the resistance level around 0.9425 was after spending a couple of weeks at the end of May trading near and finding support at 0.9220. The 0.9220 level has repeatedly reinforced its significance as it is again likely to support price should the Australia dollar retreat further. Throughout April and into May the Australian dollar drifted lower from resistance just below 0.95 after reaching a six month high in that area and down to the recent key level at 0.93 before falling lower. During this similar period the 0.93 level has become very significant as it has provided stiff resistance for some time.
The Australian dollar appeared to be well settled around 0.93 which has illustrated the strong resurgence it has experienced throughout this year. For the best part of February and March the Australian dollar did very little other than continue to trade around the 0.90 level, although at the beginning of March it crept a little lower down to a three week low below 0.89. Towards the end of March however, the Australian dollar surged higher strongly moving to the resistance level at 0.93 before consolidating for a week or so.
The house price boom shows no sign of cooling despite the onset of winter. Price growth in almost all capital cities in the three months to June has helped the median Australian house price soar almost 11 per cent in just 12 months. Sydney is leading the surge, where the median house price climbed by more than $100,000 in the year to June, or 17 per cent, to hit a record $812,000. Melbourne recorded 10 per cent growth to $608,000, according to the latest report from Australian Property Monitors (APM). June quarter prices showed capital city housing markets are showing no signs of slowing down, APM senior economist Dr. Andrew Wilson said. "Most capital cities are maintaining or exceeding the solid to strong prices growth levels recorded during the previous quarter," he said. "Other leading indicators of housing market activity such as home loan activity and auction clearance rates point to continued solid buyer activity through 2014." Canberra was the only capital city not to have an increase in house prices in 2013/14, dropping by 0.5 per cent to a median price of $576,000. Despite strong growth in median house prices, unit prices were more varied. Sydney's 13.3 per cent growth did pull the national average up to 8.3 per cent, but Brisbane, Canberra and Hobart all fell.
(Daily chart / 4 hourly chart below)
AUD/USD July 27 at 23:15 GMT 0.9398 H: 0.9399 L: 0.9394
During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Monday, the AUD/USD will be looking to see if it can rally and threaten to move back through the key resistance level at 0.9425 after reaching a three week high just shy of 0.9480 towards the end of last week. The Australian dollar was in a free-fall for a lot of last year falling close to 20 cents and it has done very well to recover slightly to well above 0.95 again. Current range: trading below 0.9425 around 0.9400.
Further levels in both directions:
• Below: 0.9220 and 0.9100.
• Above: 0.9425 and 0.9500.
OANDA's Open Position Ratios
(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for the AUD/USD among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)
The long position ratio for the AUD/USD has moved back up a little from its lowest level in over one year as the Australian dollar has eased back below the key 0.9425 level. The trader sentiment remains in favour of short positions.
- 06:00 UK Nationwide House Prices (28th-1st) (Jul)
- 14:00 US Pending Home Sales (Jun)
*All release times are GMT