This is indeed the most important week of the year, and maybe even the most important week of the entire business cycle. Whatever happens, there will be a huge opportunity to make some significant gains in 2011. Either the market will breakout today and continue to run until year end, or we'll get our much needed correction after rallying nearly 20% in a little over 2 months on the NASDAQ.
Market participants are looking at two numbers today which will give us the direction for the intermediate term. If the S&P 500 breaks above 1,200 today (Thursday, November 4th) and closes above that mark, then we're headed much much higher from here. Maybe even to 1,300 before year end. If the S&P closes substantially below 1179, then we're probably at the eve of correction. It doesn't matter what happens today because there will be opportunity to capitalize on the directional move in the market.
Yet that isn't even the most important aspect of this week. Whatever happens--correction or continuation of the melt-up bubble--one thing is very clear. 2011 is going to be one huge blowout year for equities. If we get a correction, then it will be one of the best buying opportunities since the March 2009 lows. However, if the S&P breaks above 1230 and the QQQQ breaks above $55, then we're going to see some massive moves in equities.
In fact, break above $55 on the QQQQ and we'll see Apple (AAPL) $500, Google (GOOG) $800, Amazon (AMZN) $250, Research in Motion (RIMM) $120, Microsoft (MSFT) $40, IBM (IBM) $200 and Intel (INTC) $33 sometime within the next 18 months. A break above $55 on the QQQQ will send technology stocks skyrocketing as the QQQQ will see absolutely no significant long-term resistance all the way to $83.
Notice these price targets are not based on fundamentals but on a theory of asset inflation. We're going to get a new mini-tech bubble much like what we saw in 1999-2000. Just because things might become overvalued, doesn't mean we can't go much much higher. A significant break above $55 on the QQQQ suggests a 70% move in Apple.
Disclosure: On the sidelines awaiting directional clarity.