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Einstein Noah Restaurant Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:BAGL)

Q3 2010 Earnings Call Transcript

November 4, 2010 5:00 pm ET

Executives

Manny Hilario – CFO

Jeff O'Neill – President and CEO

Analysts

Steve West – Stifel Nicolaus

Bart Glenn – D.A. Davidson

Paul Westra – Cowen and Company

Fan Li [ph] – Oppenheimer & Co.

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the Einstein Noah Restaurant Group’s third quarter 2010 earnings conference call. (Operator instructions)

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Manny Hilario, CFO for Einstein Noah Restaurant Group. Thank you, Mr. Hilario. You may now begin.

Manny Hilario

Good afternoon and welcome to the Einstein Noah Restaurant Group’s third quarter 2010 conference call. I am Manny Hilario, Chief Financial Officer. And with me today is Jeff O'Neill, Chief Executive Officer and President.

I will start by covering a few regulatory matters. Please note that during our formal remarks and in our responses to your questions, certain items may be discussed which are not based on historical facts. Such items including statements indicating our belief, trends, plans, expectations, assumptions, anticipation, guidance, projections, estimates and the like should be considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. All such forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially. For more details, please refer to our news release issued today and to the risk factors in our SEC filings.

And now, let me turn the call over to Jeff O'Neill. Jeff.

Jeff O'Neill

Thanks, Manny, and welcome everyone. We are very pleased with our performance during the third quarter as we made meaningful progress in executing against our three key objectives, creating more awareness for our brands, financing our operational efficiencies, and driving unit growth through our franchise-first model.

Total revenues for the third quarter increased slightly to $101 million, with particularly strong performances from our franchise and license segment. Improved system wide comp sales helped our results, along with a net increase of 31 locations compared to 2009.

On a comparable basis, we generated positive system restaurant sales and transactions, a turnaround of almost 200 basis points versus the second quarter. We also held our average check steady against heavy value driven competition. And finally, we reached a development milestone of surpassing 700 restaurants and we are very excited about that.

Company gross margins increased 120 basis points to almost 20% of revenues. Adjusted EBITDA improved to 10.9 million, while adjusted diluted EPS increased 33%. These key metrics outpaced total revenue growth and reflect our disciplined approach to managing the P&L. We are focused on differentiating ourselves through innovation, health and fresh baked goodness.

Towards the end of the second quarter we launched bagel thin sandwiches into our lunch day part, and have since extended the line to breakfast as well. Today they comprise just under 4% of our total mix, and have emerged as a particularly attractive option for consumers. In addition, our lighter side menu features six freshly prepared breakfast and lunch items, all less than 400 calories. These items are gaining in popularity and currently account for roughly 2% of our total mix.

With respect to our coffee business, we are testing premium roast and specialty drinks to expand our offering and raise our beverage mix. We have introduced new equipment and training and now plan to have barista [ph] in 40 company locations. While the results today are compelling, we are still at the early stages of our valuation on this project.

Catering is another area of our business with a lot of potential, and I’m pleased to report that we delivered growth of 9% during the quarter. While the overall impact to our business is still modest given their rather small base, we’re encouraged to be gaining traction through our added focus, marketing and online ordering system.

Creating more awareness for our brand is critical, and we have been successful in moving into digital marketing through social networking sites like Facebook, and now have over 614,000 fans that we are engaging with on a regular basis to help build our customer loyalty.

Turning to development, while we are obviously pleased to have expanded our footprint beyond the 700 plus restaurant milestone, there is certainly more opportunity ahead for the Einstein Bros. brand. We currently have 20 signed development agreements for Einstein Bros. franchises, and coupled with the four additional development agreements planned for 2010, the company expects to yield an ending pipeline of 100 to 110 additional franchise locations.

Most of our franchising and licensing interest is coming from Tier 1 operators through our experienced QSR franchisees looking to diversify both their own businesses and gain a foothold in fast casual. With comparatively modest build out costs, and compelling unit level returns we are very attractive option for them.

All in costs for new unit continued to be below $0.5 million, delivering cash on cash returns of approximately 30%. This year our original plan calls for between 57 and 74 restaurant openings, primarily franchise and license locations, and we expect to finish the year at the lower end of that range. The difference is that we have made a conscious effort to fine-tune our site selection process throughout the year, stressing quality over quantity. And as a result, we have pushed a few locations into 2011.

Through the third quarter, we have already opened a net 31 units. We now expect to open seven or eight company-owned stores, 15 to 17 new franchise restaurants, and 35 to 40 new license locations this year.

And now for a review of our financial performance I will turn the call back to Manny.

Manny Hilario

Thanks Jeff. I will begin with the key highlights of our financial statements, specifically for the third quarter we’re pleased with our $3 million growth in free cash flow and our $8.4 million growth in cash provided by operating activities.

In terms of our P&L, total revenue increased by 1.3 million to 101.4 million compared to 100 million in the third quarter of 2009. System wide comparable store sales increased 0.7% and were driven exclusively by an increase in comparable transaction accounts as average check held steady. Very importantly, our system wide comparable transactions trend sequentially improved from the second quarter of 2010.

Company-owned restaurant sales for the quarter were $91.8 million, up 0.6% compared to the year ago period. Reflecting a comparable store sales decrease of 0.2% in the quarter, the decrease in company-owned restaurant comparable store sales was offset by the addition of new company-owned restaurants year-to-date.

Our investments in marketing initiatives were $1.8 million, or $0.4 million higher in the third quarter 2010 compared to the prior year.

Company-owned restaurant gross profit was 18.5%, up 100 basis points compared to the same period last year. This was primarily driven by realizing efficiency in cost of goods sold and labor, offset slightly by higher other operating costs. Cost of goods sold were 40 basis points favorable as a percentage of restaurant sales at 28.4%. The majority of this improvement was attributable to lower costs on our commodities, primarily wheat, as well as the impact of our cost initiatives in this area.

We’re locked in for all our wheat needs for the remainder of this year and approximately 90% of all other commodity needs. For the first quarter next year, we already locked into 50% of our wheat supply needs. Labor costs improved 90 basis points to 29.6% of restaurant sales due to our continued work on our labor matrix initiative, with particular emphasis on managing outliers. We also benefited from a decrease in our healthcare costs from 2009.

Other operating costs rose 40 basis points from last year to 11% of restaurant sales, primarily due to unfavorable utilities and credit card cost due to a higher proportion of sales on credit cards. Rent and marketing costs decreased 10 basis point to 12.5% of restaurant sales, and includes approximately 0.4 million in incremental marketing spend.

Manufacturing and commissary gross profit grew by 14.7% to $1 million on a 6.1% increase in revenues to $7.5 million as a result of favorable raw ingredient costs, along with higher sales to licensed restaurants and third party customers from our Whittier, California, plant. Franchise and license revenues grew 17.2% to $2.1 million from 1.8 million in the third quarter of 2009, reflecting strong royalty streams driven by the additional 9 net franchise location and 28 net license locations since September 29, 2009. Franchisees and licensees comparable store sales were up 3.5%.

Our general and administrative expenses rose by 1.1 million to 9.2 million in the third quarter of 2010 compared to the same period in 2009, and as a percentage of revenues increased 100 basis points to 9.1%. However, G&A excluding stock based compensation and bonuses was relatively flat year-over-year. The increase in incentive compensation is a result of our view that we can achieve our performance targets this year.

As Jeff mentioned earlier, adjusted EBITDA was 10.9 million compared to 10.5 million last year. Depreciation and amortization expense was 4.5 million for the quarter, 0.3 million higher than last year, and this is due to investments in new and upgraded restaurants. We now believe depreciation and amortization expense will be approximately 18 million this year, which is at the low-end of our previous estimate of between 18 million and 19 million.

For the third quarter of 2010, other operating expenses income includes a favorable net impact of a gain on the sale of one of our restaurants, and a small loss resulting from a fire in another one of our restaurants. The favorable net impact to EPS was $0.02.

Taking all of these items into consideration, income from operations was $7 million for the quarter, up $0.8 million from last year. Interest expense fell to $1.2 million from $1.9 million last year, as we have made progress in redeeming year-over-year series E preferred stock, and reduced our total outstanding balance to 7.1 million at the end of the quarter. During the third quarter, we redeemed a total of 6.5 million of the preferred stock, and 0.6 million of the accrued additional redemption.

On October 15, 2010 we informed Halpern Denny of our intent to redeem the shares subject to the Exchange Option for 3.6 million including additional redemption. On October 25, 2010, Halpern Denny waived their rights of exchange in all of the shares, and requested that we settle the balance in cash.

We redeemed 3.6 million on October 25, 2010, and now only have 3.6 million of series E preferred outstanding, including additional redemption, which is scheduled to mature on June 30 of 2011. The takeaway is that we think our balance sheet is now in great shape.

Our current estimate of our 2010 annual effect of tax rate is 42.7% and it was used to calculate our total provision for income taxes for the third quarter of 2010. Our estimate of cash taxes to be paid remains minimum as we continue to benefit from the utilization of our deferred tax assets, primarily, our NOL carry-forwards.

On a GAAP basis, net income and diluted EPS available to common stockholders for the third quarter of 2010 compared to 2009 were $3.4 million and $0.21 per share respectively compared to $60.9 million and $3.65 per share respectively. I remind you that we reversed $61 million of our tax valuation allowance related to our deferred tax assets in the third quarter of 2009.

We believe a more meaningful measure of our performance is reflected in the non-GAAP measures, adjusted net income and adjusted diluted earnings per share for the third quarter of 2010, which were $3.4 million and $0.20 per share respectively compared to $2.5 million and $0.15 per share respectively in 2009.

Finally, we have spent approximately 11.7 million for the third quarter on capital expenditures, and look to spend in total in the 17 million to 19 million range on CapEx this year.

I will now turn the call back over to Jeff.

Jeff O'Neill

Before we open things up to Q&A, I would like to leave you with a few following key takeaways. Importantly, we have improved the trend in both comp restaurant sales and transaction, as we are benefiting from effective marketing campaigns, and new healthy and innovative products that reinforce our core bagel and breakfast heritage.

We are building efficiency and a sustainable cost advantage that is reflected in our margin improvement at the store level, and our cash flow generation continues to be strong, allowing us to exceed our financial commitment and invest in all areas of our business, so that we can maximize shareholder value. And finally, we have a long runway of opportunity for further build out of our national Einstein Bros. brand, as no other restaurant brand offers the quality and freshness of a bakery café with the speed of a QSR.

This will be accomplished primarily through franchise and license expansion as we partner with experienced operators, along with continued growth in company operated stores.

On behalf of Manny and myself, we are now ready to answer any of your calls you might have. Operator, please open the lines for Q&A.

Question-and-Answer Session

Operator

Thank you. (Operator instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Steve West of Stifel Nicolaus. Please proceed with your question.

Steve West – Stifel Nicolaus

Hi guys. Just a few quick questions. Manny, do you have kind of an indication – you talked about your Q1 wheat being locked in for FY '11 – kind of an indication or a feel for what your COGS inflation will be for next year? I know it's a little early, but just kind of what your gut feel says right now?

Manny Hilario

Sure. I mean, we certainly know that in 2011 we will have some headwinds there. We think that is based on our utilization of commodities, we are looking about 2% to 3% inflation in 2011.

Steve West – Stifel Nicolaus

2% to 3%?

Manny Hilario

Correct.

Steve West – Stifel Nicolaus

Okay, great. And then, Jeff, maybe can you talk about – you launched the thin sandwiches and they seem to be selling well, at least in the market where I live. And you talked about they are already 4% of mix. Are you seeing – and it looks like maybe some mix shift – what are these things cannibalizing that may be hurting your mix there? Or am I reading that wrong?

Jeff O'Neill

Yes. Actually, the good news about this Steve is when you look at it, the real benefit we’re getting is a lot of frequency. We are getting some new users, but a lot of frequency. You know, it's the old adage of great taste, less filling, and if that line hadn't already been taken. But how about fresh bake, less filing. I mean, the point of this is that we are getting – we’re getting frequency out of it, so the cannibalization in fact, our total lunch business grew as a result of the launch of Bagel Thins. So any cannibalization was offset by the new users and the frequency we are getting. So we were very happy at lunch.

Now on a breakfast day part point of view, we are getting enough mix shift from people coming in, going to get a bagel and cream cheese, ending up getting one of our Bagel Thin sandwiches, because of A, the great taste, and low calories. And so we are benefiting from that side as well.

Steve West – Stifel Nicolaus

Okay, great. And then so, as you think about the Thin Sandwiches and you're in lunch now, maybe a little more focus on lunch, does it kind of give you more right with the consumer to do more at lunch here, and try and build it more out [ph]?

Jeff O'Neill

Absolutely, and while we are – as we look forward in 2011, we feel that there is a real opportunity to expand on what we have done with the breakfast and the lunch sandwiches this year, and really build out from there in a meaningful way.

Steve West – Stifel Nicolaus

Okay, great. And I had just one last question. As you look forward, it looks like you probably have the preferred Z's paid off in the next few quarters at some point. And then you've got some pretty strong free cash flow coming in. What is maybe your intention or your thoughts on using that free cash flow? And then I will let it go. Thank you.

Manny Hilario

Okay. This is Manny. I will give – obviously, our first focus in 2011 with regards to utilization of capital will be to grow the brand as well as continue investing in our storage. Obviously, we will probably more likely have – or actually more likely will have access on top of that, and at that point we will do our analysis, and work with our board of directors and see what the best deployment of that capital is.

And in regards to the Z, actually based on our current cash position and since we have eliminated all the conversion factor on that, it is just basically debt now and the balance sheet it is – just barely over $2 million. We will probably take care of that in the fourth quarter this year.

Steve West – Stifel Nicolaus

Okay, great. Thanks.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Bart Glenn with D.A. Davidson. Please proceed with your question.

Bart Glenn – D.A. Davidson

Hi, hello guys. Could you just talk a little bit about the commissary margins, and how to think about those on a going-forward basis as you are likely to see higher wheat prices?

Jeff O'Neill

Yes. Well, as you know that we continue to have favorability in our manufacturing profit. We’re up about 100 basis points this quarter. We feel that there is some opportunity to pass on some pricing from a manufacturing point of view, and then we also have some opportunities to continue to grow our business. Obviously our manufacturing base, when you think about it that way and commissary will be benefiting from the increased business on franchise and licensing. So, we will be growing the business, if you will, from a franchise and licensing point of view.

And from a manufacturing perspective, we also feel that we have some opportunities not only to grow internally, but to grow externally with some of the customers that we sell to on a – outside of the plant or outside of our regular business, places like Costco.

Bart Glenn – D.A. Davidson

Great. And then in terms of your thinking on wheat costs, it sounds like you haven't done a lot of contracting recently. Just trying to kind of get your perspective on how you think about letting prices float or at what point you would consider trying to lock up costs for a portion of next year.

Jeff O'Neill

Yes. We have a partner that we work closely with and have been very successful, as you know, looking in the past few years in managing all of our commodity cost, not just wheat. But the other thing that we have been doing because we know that there will be cost escalation next year as Manny mentioned, but we have been testing pricing opportunities with pretty good success over the last kind of 4, 5 months of the year. And we have been really diligent in this part of the business.

We are seeing some pricing movement by competitors, which we feel allows us to take some pricing, and we’re just as you all know, we have talked about it in the past, testing menu board and part of that menu board testing that we have been doing is around price mix, getting favorable price mix through the menu board.

So there is some combo meal opportunities that we will be looking at. They are going to help to drive pricing, and we feel that we have got some good smart opportunity to get pricing next year. Another one, as I mentioned, touched earlier on, our catering business is growing and obviously with an average check over $100, and the sizeable growth that we are getting there that also helps overall pricing mix, and our bulk business is starting to comeback and we have got some plans around that in 2011.

So all in all we feel that despite the escalation, we are managing the cost side of this, we are buying effectively and appropriately forward, and locking up enough, but leaving ourselves some flexibility, and we have got good, strong well thought out pricing plans in place that we feel put us in pretty good stead as we look to 2011.

Bart Glenn – D.A. Davidson

That's great. And one last question. In terms of the marketing on a going-forward basis, I'm just trying to find out how happy you are with the returns you're seeing from marketing, and if you continue to feel confident about increasing marketing spend again next year.

Jeff O'Neill

Yes. The way I look at marketing, and I have talked about this as we have gone along is very much a pay as we go basis, and we have been – we have been adding marketing prudently this year. We will continue to do so. We are doing a little media test now in the Denver market, we really, but we’re pleased with what we are seeing there. And the focus that we will put on it as we go forward is into what we call our tier 1 markets.

So, we are going to you know, expand the media in a prudent way in our most developed cities, and places where the economy is in the best shape to ensure that we can get the biggest bump and return out of that. So, pretty much what you have seen is what we are going to get going forward, and we will add to that as we expand the media test that we have got going on.

Bart Glenn – D.A. Davidson

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Paul Westra with Cowen and Company. Please proceed with your question.

Paul Westra – Cowen and Company

Hi, good afternoon everyone.

Manny Hilario

Hi, Paul.

Jeff O'Neill

Hi, Paul.

Paul Westra – Cowen and Company

A couple of questions. One, just a recap on the pricing issue for next year, is it safe to say that the 2% to 3% seems manageable, in your opinion, and if the remaining line items maybe face similar types of 2% to 3% inflation as well, that you would be able to essentially try to offset almost all of that with price?

Manny Hilario

Yes, that is a good way of phrasing it. We are now – and our pricing will be not over the top. So, we will take opportunities where we think we can offset, enough to offset the inflationary effect.

Jeff O'Neill

Well, the other piece as you know, we haven’t really taken pricing in two years. So we feel that we have been really holding back in this side of the business. We haven’t crept up any pricing. This year, I think we did a lot of real prudent evaluations. We were going to jump on it early, but we didn’t. We continue to test. And so that is why I feel encouraged by the learnings that we have going into next year.

Paul Westra – Cowen and Company

That makes sense. And then, as far as the cost-cutting efforts and the labor matrix in particular, I guess, could you give us a little bit more color on the compensation line? I know another good year-over-year decline. I assume all the stores are benefiting. And I guess the question sort of is, how much is the outlier effort helping versus every stores bringing labor [ph]?

Jeff O'Neill

Well, we have been really pleased with our cost of labor comp side of the business, and we have been working, I would say in a more disciplined fashion with our labor matrix, which has helped to drive a good piece of that. And then the store outliers is a way to – it impacts all the stores, but really what we’re doing is we are taking our top 25% of performers, and we’re really marrying those up with the other folks in the system, so they get a good understanding of what the differences are in like sized stores, and that is where we are really seeing the benefit.

So both the things are having an impact. The other thing we have done is we have managed our inventories a little bit tighter, you know, waste management has been an area that the operations team has put a good measure of effort into. So, it is an ongoing piece. It is one that we’re really proud of. We are very cautious. This isn’t about reducing labor in the stores. On the contrary, it is about taking advantage of the labor in the stores. And so that's sort of our march forward as we look into 2011.

So I would say less so because of the advances that we have made. But still some small opportunities for cleaning up and getting a little bit of margin improvement as we go into next year.

Paul Westra – Cowen and Company

And then maybe some more – a couple more general comments on the franchise sign-ups. You have four more pending; it sounds like – it seems like that's picking up. Where would you – do you have any goals set for 2011 as far as additional franchisees and maybe a total number of additional unit signups?

Manny Hilario

I think – this is Manny by the way, I think if you look at our progression between ’08, ’09 and 2010, we have accelerated the pace of how we have been bringing new agreements and building up the pipeline. So, I think preliminary – although we don’t provide guidance at this point to that into next year. I think we will continue to see an acceleration of the number of agreements and number of units that we bring into the pipeline.

Jeff O'Neill

I think that is the best way to look at it. We will have coming out of this year, have signed up this year 10 new development agreements, and you know for over 50 stores. And that to me is the key, and the other piece as we continue to get interest from what I call well Tier 1 franchisees in the business that are more and more seeing an interest in our side of our business. I’m really encouraged by that.

Paul Westra – Cowen and Company

Last question – do you have the number remaining on the NOLs, and when do you expect them to run out?

Manny Hilario

Yes. The number remaining on NOLs, $126 million.

Paul Westra – Cowen and Company

Great. Okay, thanks a lot. Congrats.

Manny Hilario

Thanks. Paul.

Operator

(Operator instructions) Our next question comes from Matt DiFrisco of Oppenheimer & Co. Please proceed with your question.

Fan Li – Oppenheimer & Co.

This is Fan Li [ph] sitting in for Matt DiFrisco. I just had a quick question about your comps. I was wondering if you can maybe talk about the trend through the quarter, whether it was a progressive improvement or maybe a little bit lumpy; and then secondly, whether those trends have sort over bled over into the current quarter.

Jeff O'Neill

Yes. The trends can be pretty much lined up with some of the new products that kicked in. And although we had favorability across the businesses, I mentioned continued strong, and we built our bulk businesses well. But I would say pretty smooth trend, and it is pretty much maintained thus favorability when we came out of the quarter and coming in to Q4.

Manny Hilario

The momentum has…

Jeff O'Neill

The momentum has maintained and may be built on that a little bit with the launch of the Bagel Thin sandwiches into the breakfast occasion, which obviously is a key part of our business. So, yes, I’m real happy with the trends coming out of the quarter, and I’m happy with the trends going into the fourth quarter.

Fan Li – Oppenheimer & Co.

Great, great. And then, I don't know if you guys touched upon this a little bit earlier; I jumped on a little bit late. But could you talk about the $600,000 in other operating expenses?

Manny Hilario

Sure. You’re talking about the increase in the quarter year-over-year?

Fan Li – Oppenheimer & Co.

Yes.

Manny Hilario

Yes, two factors, utilities year-over-year, fourth warmest summer. So, we did have some high utilities. And the second item is credit cards. And that is related basically to the mix of sales. We are getting more credit card sales mix in our overall sales mix.

Fan Li – Oppenheimer & Co.

Okay, wonderful. Great. Thanks, guys.

Jeff O'Neill

Very good.

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the call back over to Jeff O'Neill.

Jeff O'Neill

Well, thank you very much, and as I mentioned, sort of in closing that I am really encouraged by the momentum that we built on the business, almost a 2 point swing in comps from the second quarter and we are very pleased with that. The new products are working for us as we mentioned led by Bagel Thin sandwiches and the Lighter Fare menu overall. The catering business we talked about continues to gain traction, and we are pleased with the disciplined cost management that we put in this in a very focused way to drive that increase in gross margin.

We are building a strong pipeline of new franchisees. We mentioned we have opened 17 stores in the quarter, 36 year-to-date, so overall between that and the marketing plans and the pipeline that we have we are looking forward to finishing off the year with a strong quarter, and moving on to 2011. Thank you very much and we will talk to you next quarter.

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