Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Friday November 12.
After a "horrible" day on Friday, with the Dow down 91 points, Cramer warned viewers that the coming week might not be much better, especially with the Chinese expected to raise interest rates. Other countries may follow suit with tightening, and stocks may drop 3-5%. Instead of panicking, investors should keep their eyes peeled for opportunities, like GM's (GM) IPO. With GM expected to issue 356 million shares between $26-$29, Cramer would buy Ford. "What is good for GM is good for Ford," declared Cramer. Money managers are going to immediately compare Ford to GM, and Ford will come out on top since it is "by far the better company" and GM is "Just treading water."
Bankruptcy has helped GM, which now has just $5.4 billion in debt compared to Ford's $21 billion, but Ford has been cleaning up its books and is set to become cash positive. Ford also doesn't have GM's headache of underfunded pensions or liabilities.
On Monday, Nordstrom (JWN) and Urban Outfitters (URBN) report. High end retail has been healthy. Cramer thinks JWN is a better company, especially since URBN is expected to guide down and is "too dangerous to own ahead of the quarter." He would consider buying it under $30. Lower end retail is represented on Tuesday by Wal-Mart (WMT) and TJX (TJX), and Cramer actually thinks TJX 's call will be more informative on the consumer.
On Wednesday, NetApp (NTAP) should give important information on cloud computing. Cramer thinks the company is going to report a fabulous quarter; "people don't care enough about NetApp." Cloud computing continues on Thursday with Salesforce.com (CRM) which is being pursued by shorts. If the story is good, it is worth buying on a decline. If the jobless claims reported on Thursday are under 425,000, Cramer says "look out above."
CEO Interview: Robert Hugin, Celgene (CELG)
While many investors are looking for good stocks to buy ahead of the holiday season, Cramer is concentrating on another important event in December: The American Society of Hematology. While that might not sound like such an exciting occasion, for blood plays in biotech, it is the highlight of the year. Celgene (CELG) which makes a leading blood cancer treatment, Revlimid, consistently sees gains in its stock from the conference.
Even prior to the conference, Celgene has seen success, with its 4 cents a share earnings beat on October 28, strong revenues, raised forecasts. Celgene has raised its guidance three times this year and yet it knows how to underpromise and overdeliver. Celgene has an incredible 44% sales increase while most companies are lagging at a mere 4-5%. Robert Hugin says multiple revenue drivers, including duration gains and geographical expansion, are responsible for the company's gains. The company has 33 late phase trials and is making profitable acquisitions. Far from disappointing, Europe has been a major driver for the company. Cramer says Celgene is "the best biotech if not the best drug story in the world."
It's not that REITs are inherently bad investments. It's not that they don't have good yields: Invesco Mortgage has a 15.7% dividend and Walter Investment Management (WAC) yields 10.9%. The problem with REITs is it is virtually impossible to know what they actually own, and without this clarity, one cannot really analyze them.
The only REIT Cramer would own is Annaly Capital (NLY), which not only has a history of strong performance, but has a CEO that at least tries to give investors an idea of what the REIT is doing. While it isn't completely transparent, and the information on the company website, with CEO Mike Farrell's outlook and ideas, can be as easy to understand as "brain surgery," Annaly's attempt at clarity makes it worthwhile. The reason most REITs are red flags is because of their high dividends. Cramer thinks Annaly is safe because it is well-managed and is best-of-breed. Even if it does reduce its 15.7% dividend, the yield is substantial enough to still provide investors with significant reward.
It looks like Motorola (MOT) and Cisco (CSCO) are trading positions on Cramer's radar. Cisco's "massacre" brought down other tech stocks and gave a very disappointing quarter. Cramer used to like Cisco and despise Motorola (MOT), but the latter stock is looking more attractive, not just because it is ridiculously cheap, but because it is streamlining its businesses, spinning off segments and profiting from the Android phone.
Motorola is spinning off its phone and its home and networks division into a new company called Motorola Mobility. The enterprise mobility solutions segment will remain as Motorola. Motorola Mobility will have $3.5 billion in cash and no debt. The remaining Motorola will probably be a takeover target.
Motorola's comeback is largely due to the success of the Android phone, and the company is coming out with 22 new Android devices. Motorola has reported its first operating profit in 3 years and is taking market share. Shipments of the Android handset are expected to increase 51% in 2011 compared to a 36% increase last year. While Verizon (VZ) and the iPhone might give Motorola a run for its money, at $8, most of the negatives and almost none of the positives are priced into the stock. Cramer says Motorola is "too cheap to resist."
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