Below are some earnings estimates for companies reporting after the close today, Monday, November 15, 2010.
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Abraxas Petroleum (ABP) – consensus: 0.02 revenue: $17.43M
The earning looks like it will beat, but the revenues may not. Earnings have increased from 2nd to 3rd quarter in 2008 and 2009. So unless there is a major problem, earnings should be greater than 0.07 for the 3rd quarter of 2010. However, there is not a good trend in revenues to make a good enough prediction.
Callon Petroleum (CPE) – consensus: 0.01 revenue: $20.61M
I predict it will beat estimates simply by the fact the 3rd quarter earnings were never less than 2nd quarter earnings in 2008 and 2009. At worst, earnings could be 0.05. I also predict it would beat on revenue due to the fact that the revenue decline from 2nd to 3rd quarters decreased significantly from 2008 to 2009.
China Distance Education (DL) – consensus: 0.06 revenue: $10.54
I can’t get good, consistent data on this company for a trend analysis. However, Yahoo Finance has September 2009 earnings of 0.04 (see here) and has year over year earnings growth of over 1000% (here). Using that metric, one could predict that it will beat earnings. Looking at the graph above, one sees that it has missed estimates in 2008 and 2009. But if the growth trend continues, earnings could be higher than estimates this time.
MSN’s revenue data looks consistent enough. From this data, one can predict that they are going to beat estimates.
Nordstrorm (JWN) – consensus: 0.52 revenue: $2.07M
From the chart, I say that it will beat on both earnings and revenues. The decrease in revenue and earnings is getting smaller from 2nd to 3rd quarters over the last two years. If the trend continues, the earnings difference should get smaller, not larger. Same with revenues. Assuming a $2.69 billion decrease in revenue (the decrease for 2009) from 2nd to 3rd quarters, revenue should come in $2.246 billion.
Perfect World (PWRD) – consensus: 0.54 revenue: $89.96M
Again, Chinese smallcap and hard to find reliable data. Assuming the revenue data from MSN Money and the earnings data from Yahoo Finance are correct, it seems that it will beat on revenues, but earnings is a big question mark. Revenues has been steadily increasing, while earnings seems to be decreasing. As a gamble, I would say that it would beat earning estimates.
Buying based on these estimates carry significant risk. Buy at your own risk. All estimates are to the best of my knowledge. All estimates also assumed a growing economy.
Consensus estimates are from Briefing.com (see here). Revenue estimates are from Yahoo Finance. Tables from MSN Money unless stated otherwise.
Disclosure: Currently no position in any of stocks mentioned