Cramer's Mad Money - The Sun Sets on First Solar (11/16/10)

by: Miriam Metzinger

Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Tuesday November 16.

First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR)

Cramer hasn't been a fan of solar, because solar companies depend heavily on government subsidies. However, First Solar (FSLR) was in its own category, because it was best-of-breed and had lower expenses than other solars, since it uses thin-film semiconductors rather than expensive silicon. First Solar had a significant run as far as $290 in 2008. However, Cramer is telling viewers to sell the stock following its 9% decline. The reason: Big money is fleeing First Solar.

Cramer trusted technician Ken Shreve's judgment when he said to get out of Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:ISRG) ahead of a selloff by institutional investors. According to Shreve's analysis, FSLR is about to have the same fate. The selloff in FSLR occurred when volume was three times its usual rate. This signals big money leaving the stock. First Solar has been stuck under its 50 day moving average, and its down days on heavy volume have outnumbered good days.

"The solar business is a nasty place to be. The best days could be behind First Solar."

CEO Interview: Michael Ward, CSX (NYSE:CSX)

It doesn't look like renewable fuels are going to dethrone fossil fuels any time soon, Cramer said, but people will pay up for energy efficiency, which protects their bottom line as well as protecting the Earth.

Rails are one of the most energy efficient ways of getting around and transporting goods; one gallon of fuel can take you 480 miles by rail. The rail companies form a "happy oligopoly," since there are very few competitors. CSX comes out ahead in the industry, with a 4 cent earnings beat and revenues up 16% in its last quarter. The stock is up 27% since Cramer recommended it in February, and the company raised the dividend 8%.

Michael Ward discussed the company's reduction of energy intensity by 90% since 1980 through the use of energy efficient locomotives, and has made a commitment to reduce carbon emissions another 8% by 2011. More companies are changing from the truck model of transport to rails, said Ward, since rail is cheaper and more energy efficient. CSX has been able to raise its prices by 6.5% because customers appreciate the greater value of rail transport. Ward says all facets of the economy seem to be strong, based on the products CSX transports, particularly coal. "Coal is reliable, cheap and abundant. We (the U.S.) are the Saudi Arabia of coal."

Mad Mail: ICON (NASDAQ:ICLR), Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX) Eldorado (NYSE:EGO), Ciena (NASDAQ:CIEN), American Tower (NYSE:AMT), Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ:WYNN), Limelight Networks (NASDAQ:LLNW)

Icon (ICLR) runs clinical trials for biotech companies, but is not yet a buy after its earnings miss in October and cancellations of orders. The stock has dropped from $30 to $20. However, if Icon improves after its repositioning plans, it may be a buy. Cramer prefers Eldorado to Barrick Gold on EGO's superior growth. He would take profits from Ciena (CIEN) and buy American Tower (AMT). Wynn Resorts (WYNN) should be bought on its fundamentals, not because of its one-time $8 a share dividend. The hit Limelight Networks (LLNW) took was because it was too hot and Cramer would hold onto it long-term as a speculative stock.

7 Excuses for the sell-off: Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ:URBN), Home Depot (NYSE:HD).

Cramer says the bears are engaged in a "vicious excuse-athon" for the nearly 200 point drop on Tuesday. The Street ignored the common sense reasons for the decline, such as profit-taking and options expiration. Instead, they found the following false reasons for the decline:

1. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and quantitative easing

2. Strong dollar.

3. Worries about oil price. However, oil has actually been rising, and demand won't be falling off anytime soon.

4. Recent gains were due to an extended short squeeze. Cramer thinks this is wrong since the earnings have been strong.

5. Obama is not going to extend tax cuts.

6. Higher interest rates will hurt housing. Cramer thinks they have further to run before worrying.

7. Bears simply wanted out.

Cramer thinks the bears are ignoring strong quarters from companies like Wal-Mart (WMT), Urban Outfitters (URBN) and Home Depot (HD). These stocks with great earnings will become more valuable as they decline.


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