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Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) dominates the notebook processor market with an estimated 86% market share while AMD (NYSE:AMD) controls almost 14% by our estimates. [1] We currently have a Trefis price estimate of $25.53 for Intel’s stock and a price estimate of $8.07 for AMD’s stock.

While Intel dominates, competition is becoming more intense with each company rolling out newer integrated computing and graphics platforms. At the core of this is a fight for market share.

We forecast market share remaining stable for both currently but note that a hypothetical 5 percentage point increase implies 2.5% upside in our share price estimate for Intel and 11% for AMD. So the little guy clearly has more to gain. See our modifiable charts below.

Early next year, Intel will release its second-generation core architecture, Sandy Bridge, a 32-nanometer chip that can put CPUs and GPUs onto a single piece of silicon designed for tasks like handling high-definition video.

Intel management immodestly called Sandy Bridge the largest increase in computing performance in its history and places high expectations on its business impact. [2] The company began large-scale production this past quarter and expects to start earning revenues on these shipments in Q4 2010.

In response, AMD introduced Llano accelerated processing unit (APU) in October 2010, a part of the company’s Fusion initiative. Some of tasks carried out by Llano include calculating the value of Pi to 32 million decimal places and decoding HD video from a Blu-ray disc, as claimed by AMD. [3] Production is slated for earlier next year after rumors of some delays.

While performance tests for both have been good so far, we won’t see the data on a large scale until next year. So until then, who do you think will gain share?

Notes:

  1. Also coincides with IDC data
  2. Taken from earnings call
  3. AMD Demos ‘Llano’ APU for Notebooks, Desktop PCs

Disclosure: No options

Source: AMD May Be Poised to Boost Market Share Ahead of Intel