Groupon Inc. (NASDAQ:GRPN) is expected to report earnings on Tuesday, August 5th. The whisper number is $0.03, two cents ahead of the analysts' estimate and showing some confidence from the WhisperNumber community. Groupon has a 38% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 3 of the 8 earnings reports for which we have data).
- Beat whisper: 3 qtrs
- Met whisper: 2 qtrs
- Missed whisper: 3 qtrs
Our primary focus is on post earnings price movement. Knowing how likely a stock's price will move following an earnings report can help you determine the best action to take (long or short). In other words, we analyze what happens when the company beats or misses the whisper number expectation.
The table below indicates the average post earnings price movement within a one and thirty trading day timeframe:
The strongest price movement of -13.2% comes within ten trading days when the company reports that beat the whisper number, and +31.5% within thirty trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number. The overall average price move is 'opposite' (beat the whisper number and see weakness, miss and see strength) when the company reports earnings.
The table below indicates the most recent earnings reports and short-term price reaction:
The company has reported earnings ahead of the whisper number in one of the past four quarters with a whisper number. In the comparable quarter last year, the company reported earnings in-line with the whisper number. Following that report, the stock realized a 2.5% loss in five trading days. Last quarter, the company reported earnings five cents short of the whisper number. Following that report, the stock realized an 11.5% loss in one trading day, but recovered within five trading days. Overall historical data indicates the company to be (on average within thirty trading days) an 'opposite' price reactor when the company reports earnings.
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Since 1998, WhisperNumber.com has been tracking and publishing crowd-sourced estimates for earnings. We call these earnings expectations whisper numbers. Our whisper numbers are gained from individual investors and traders just like you that have registered with our site. WhisperNumber is completely open and free for anyone to contribute. While the whisper number itself is an important part of our analysis, a company's 'price reaction' to beating or missing the whisper number expectation is the key. On average, companies that exceed the whisper are 'rewarded', while companies that miss are 'punished' following an earnings report. Trading on whispers is a technical play on market psychology, rather than a bet on a company's fundamental strengths. To start receiving trade alerts click here.
Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. The author wrote this article themselves, and it expresses their own opinions. The author is not receiving compensation for it. The author has no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.