Stephen Simpson, CFA
Long only, growth at reasonable price, value, research analyst

Ultra Petroleum Continuing To Yo-Yo Between Gloom And Glee

Even by the elevated standards of independent exploration and production companies, Ultra Petroleum (UPL) seems to more often swing between doom-and-gloom bearishness and gleeful bullishness than the typical E&P stock. A debt-loaded balance sheet, so-so debt-adjusted production growth, and "okay" assets may explain some of the negativity, but Ultra's production growth hasn't really been that bad, the cash costs are competitive, and the company is executing in its oil-rich Uinta acreage. Like many E&Ps, Ultra Petroleum looks undervalued on a NAV basis (though rising costs are an issue to watch there), but the EBITDA-based approach doesn't suggest the same level of near-term opportunity.

Q2 Results Come Up Short

Ultra Petroleum has an uncommonly high short interest (close to 20% as...

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