AAII Sentiment Survey: Holiday Update

by: Wall St. Cheat Sheet

By Charles Rotblut

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rose 7.4 percentage points to 47.4%. This was the 12th consecutive week that bullish sentiment has been above its historical average of 39%.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will remain essentially flat over the next six months, edged up 0.4 percentage points to 27.9%. This was the 16th consecutive week that neutral sentiment has been below its historical average of 31%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, fell 7.8 percentage points to 24.7%. This is a four-week low for bearish sentiment. The historical average is 30%.

This week’s special question asked AAII members for their turkey meat preference. White meat topped dark meat, though only half of all respondents chose white meat. A small percentage either voted for “both” or “neither.”

Here is a sampling of the responses:

  • “I like them both-white meat for sandwiches; dark meat for eating with stuffing and gravy.”
  • “I boil the gizzard, liver and heart early and have them with a martini or two before dinner.”
  • “It’s all about the dressing and cranberry sauce.”

This Week’s Sentiment Survey Results:

  • Bullish: 47.4, up 7.4 percentage points
  • Neutral: 27.9, up 0.4, percentage points
  • Bearish: 24.7, down 7.8 percentage points

Historical Averages:

  • Bullish: 39%
  • Neutral: 31%
  • Bearish: 30%

The AAII Sentiment Survey has been conducted weekly since July 1987 and asks AAII members whether they think stock prices will rise, remain essentially flat, or fall over the next six months. The survey period runs from Thursday (12:01 a.m.) to Wednesday (11:59 p.m.). The survey and its results are available online here.

Disclosure: None