Is China's Leading Index Sending a Warning Sign?

Includes: CAF, FXI, GXC, PGJ
by: Cullen Roche

Yesterday’s data was just one more sign that the economy is not falling off a cliff, however, investors should also be cognizant of the fact that everything always look brightest at the peak. If this is truly the case then China’s leading index could be sending an important warning sign.

According to Albert Edwards of Societe Generale this is a sign that the Chinese market is about to lose steam and take most other assets down with it (via Business Insider):

“Not only is the market’s favorite EM economy seemingly set to slow rapidly, but the OECD concludes that Brazil is also officially in “slowdown”. India is even worse, being defined as in a “downturn”, as are the Asian big five in aggregate, China, India, Indonesia, Japan and Korea – link. Funny how this news just doesn’t seem to be getting much attention recently amid the runaway EM/commodity euphoria.”

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