Exasperated With the Salesforce Bears

Includes: CRM, ORCL, SAP
by: Sunil Shah
Yes, all you rational Salesforce bears, I am so with you on the ludicrous valuation....
BUT: the bullish analysts (i.e., all of them -- weird, isn't it?) will tell you the future revenue space is potentially the entire current revenue of SAP (NYSE:SAP) and Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL), who have really lagged in providing an on-line SAAS hosted service in the 'cloud'. They will also tell you that these legacy players who have huge vested interests in the existing software paradigm (true) will not adapt it to provide a SAAS offering (false; they have, albeit with huge delays and disappointments). So the bull says, CRM will grow its revenue into its market cap. (PS, I totally disagree; it's very reminiscent of the dotcom argument where Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) would one day sell 30% of world's books, CDs, sofas etc).
More importantly: This stock has defied/exceeded even the most absurd dotcom-like comparisons for at least a year. Nothing stops its ascent: direct selling, dilutive acquisitions, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) offering a cheaper CRM, the CEO saying he swims with dolphins weekly....
It has cost me a ton, and i remain stubborn. Stop loss does not exist in my vocabulary. I believe in rational markets. But through sheer pain and bewilderment, I will confidently say there is something going on with CRM trading that will decimate any bear. In 2008, in 2009 and this year with another 150% added to its price, it will not fall.
One day the scam (my conjecture: two hedge funds trading it back and forth, huge volumes, in bed with Benioff who officially still owns a ton, but sells 10,000 a day..) will be revealed. But until then, some undetected prevailing scam will rip off any and every bear's trousers.
Be warned.

Disclosure: I am short CRM.

Additional disclosure: Long EBIX