USD/CAD - Little Movement On Lukewarm U.S. Job Data

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 |  Includes: FXC, UDN, UUP
by: Dean Popplewell

By Kenny Fisher

The Canadian dollar is stable on Tuesday, as USD/CAD trades in the mid-1.09 range in the North American session. On the release front, US JOLTS Jobs Openings improved last month, but fell short of expectations. There are no Canadian releases on Tuesday.

In the US, JOLTS Job Openings improved to 4.67 million, its third consecutive gain from the previous release. However, this fell short of expectations, as the estimate stood at 4.74 million. Employment indicators are under the market microscope, as the strength of the labor market is one of the most important factors influencing the Federal Reserve regarding the timing of an interest rate hike. A rate increase is expected by mid-2015, but stronger economic data, especially on the employment front, could hasten a move by the Fed.

Canadian releases started the week in fine fashion, as Housing Starts hit 200 thousand last month, beating the estimate of 194 thousand. It was the indicator's best performance since last June, and helped the Canadian dollar improve and put some distance between it and the key 1.10 level. On Friday, employment numbers disappointed, as Employment Change came in almost flat, at just 0.2 thousand. This surprised the markets, which had expected a strong gain of 25.4 thousand. The indicator tends to show sharp swings, which often results in estimates that are well off the mark. There was better news from the unemployment rate, which dipped to 7.0%, matching the forecast.

USD/CAD for Tuesday, August 12, 2014

USD/CAD August 12 at 15:05 GMT

USD/CAD 1.0939 H: 1.0953 L: 1.0928

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.0678 1.0775 1.0852 1.0961 1.1004 1.1124
Click to enlarge
  • USD/CAD edged higher in the Asian session. The pair touched a high of 1.0953 in the European session but retracted. USD/CAD is unchanged in North American trade.
  • 1.0961 is an immediate resistance line. 1.1004 is next.
  • 1.0852 is providing support. 1.0775 follows.
  • Current range: 1.0852 to 1.0961

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.0852, 1.0775, 1.0678 and 1.0588
  • Above: 1.0961, 1.1004, 1.1124 and 1.1278

OANDA's Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is pointing to gains in long positions in Tuesday trade, reversing the direction seen a day earlier. This is consistent with the pair's movement, as the US dollar has made small gains. The ratio has a majority of short positions, indicative of trader bias towards the Canadian dollar moving to higher ground.

USD/CAD Fundamentals

  • 11:30 US NFIB Small Business Index. Estimate 96.3 points. Actual 95.7 points.
  • 14:00 US JOLTS Job Openings. Estimate 4.74M. Actual 4.67M.
  • 18:00 US Federal Budget Balance. Estimate -98.2B.

* Key releases are in highlighted bold.

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.