Seeking Alpha
What is your profession? ×
Profile| Send Message|
( followers)

As it does each month, yesterday Chinese microcap China Redstone Group (OTCPK:CGPI) announced its numbers for November cemetery plot sales and average selling prices. Multiplied together, these represent the vast majority of the cemetery operator's revenues. In October, CGPI.OB reported that the number of plot sales rose 20% year-over-year, and average selling prices rose 40% year-over-year.

November was not quite as good, but still suggests that the current quarter and fiscal year 2011 (which ends in March) will both be solid. Plot sales decreased 8.7% over last year, but average selling price increased 37.4% year-over-year and even edged out October's average selling price.

China Redstone (OTCPK:CGPI) YTD sales numbers
FY ends March 31 September 2010 October 2010 November 2010 FY 2011 YTD FY 2011 Guidance
Cemetery plot sales 536 643 536 4,759 7,000
Average sales per plot $6,746 $7,341 $7,380 $6,888 $5,250-$6,250

With two-thirds of fiscal year 2011 now in the bag, China Redstone reports that it has"...achieved 68% of the sales guidance for fiscal year 2011" and "expect the positive momentum will continue for the remainder of the year." It looks like the 68% number refers to the number of plots sold, not total revenues. But if you multiply the cemetery plot sales YTD by the average sales per plot YTD, it suggests total revenues YTD exceed $32.77M. In other words, it looks like CGPI has already generated over 75% of the $40M in revenues it has projected for FY 2011. As a result, I expect that for full year FY 2011, China Redstone will beat its guidance both on the top line and the bottom line.

CEO Ran explained the reason for Redstone's success, and why I believe that CGPI.OB stock could be a huge winner: "Excess demand will continue to grow as the country ages. With more than 50 years of undeveloped land, strong cash flows and balance sheet, we are uniquely positioned to capture additional market share."