Seeking Alpha
Long/short equity, deep value, special situations, growth at reasonable price
Profile| Send Message|
( followers)  
Back in February 27, 2006, I posted the “MacWorld Expo Apple Stock Price Indicator” article about the stock trend of the rising price of Apple Computer (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock, as the San Francisco MacWorld Expo convention approaches. Then again, on December 17, 2006, I posted the “Update: MacWorld Expo Apple Stock Price Correlation” article, in which I updated the price of Apple stock at that time. Both articles described how in the previous four out of the last five years, Apple Computer stock has increased by at least 8% and as much as 37%, measured from November 15 to the last day of the Expo in January.

This year, the stock did it again, up about 13% from November 15 to the last day of the Expo on January 12. The overall average for the last six years during this two month time frame was an increase of 14%. Several of the factors that probably contributed to this trend include: strong year-end sales of Apple products from holiday shopping, anticipation and release of new products to be released at the Expo, and the heavy promotion of the MacWorld Expo which is indirect stock promotion. In other words, the product buzz created the stock buzz.

The Expo this year was very successful and packed with attendees. I attended during the last hour of the last day of the show, expecting to find the place half empty with exhibits shutting down. I discovered the exact opposite. People were lined up to get into the John Lennon Bus, hundreds of yelling and screaming attendees were surrounding an exhibit that was throwing out free T-shirts [I couldn’t even get close enough to see what company it was], and it was standing-room only at all the software demonstrations.
apple
The number of exhibiting companies that make peripheral equipment for Apple products, software for Macs, books and training courses for software for Apple items, and other related products and services, was substantial. The industries that revolve around Apple Inc. are tremendous. People didn’t start leaving until way after closing time, when they started turning the lights down.

So here is how the Expo buzz performed. The following table shows the results since 2001. A few notes about this analysis. This just looks at the 'effect' of the MacWorld Expo in San Francisco, not New York or Boston. If a date fell on a weekend, it was moved to the next business day to determine pricing. All prices were adjusted for splits and all returns rounded to the nearest percent.

11/15/2001 ...... 9.73 ..... 1/11/2002 ..... 10.52 ....... 8%
11/15/2002 ...... 7.97 ..... 1/10/2003 ...... 7.36 ...... -8%
11/15/2003 ..... 10.56 ...... 1/8/2004 ..... 11.50 ....... 9%
11/15/2004 ..... 27.62 ..... 1/14/2005 ..... 35.10 ..... 27%
11/15/2005 ..... 62.28 ..... 1/13/2006 ..... 85.59 ..... 37%
11/15/2006 ..... 84.05 ..... 1/12/2007 ..... 94.62 ..... 13%
Average Return .................................................. 14%

Keep in mind that past performance is not a guarantee of future results. No recommendation is expressed or implied.

Author owns AAPL.

AAPL 1-yr chart

aapl chart

Source: Apple Stock Price Does it Again at MacWorld Expo