Does the Population and Inflation-Adjusted Retail Sales Chart Demolish the Bullish Argument?

Includes: RTH, XRT
by: The Business Insider

Doug Short takes us to task for pointing out the v-shaped recovery in retail, arguing that the "bullish babble" is undermined by an inflation and population-adjusted retail sales chart that shows we're still nowhere near our old highs.


click to enlarge

Alright, so a few things...

First, as we noted, if you strip out energy - which was around $150 during the last peak - the chart looks a lot better.

But even beyond that, you're still looking at the same shares: a "V." In other words, even adjusting for inflation or population growth doesn't change the robust upward momentum of retail sales. Sure, we're not at the old highs yet, which is understandable, but the shape remains the same.

When it starts to taper off and go sideways, then that would be a reason to worry.

Original Post

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.