Cramer's Mad Money - China Will Make Starbucks a Growth Story Again (12/21/10)

by: Miriam Metzinger

Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Tuesday December 21.

Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX), McDonald's (NYSE:MCD), Yum Foods (NYSE:YUM)

"It is no secret that China is the new engine of the global economic growth love train," Cramer said. "Now they are the locomotive and we are the caboose." As much as people talk about China, Cramer still thinks most investors haven't grasped the magnitude of what China means for American companies. Therefore, he devoted a segment to quantifying China growth.

Not only is the Chinese population four times that of the U.S., the urban population, or people who can afford to buy American products, is also much larger than in America. There are 12 Chinese cities with a population of more than 4 million; the U.S. has just New York and Los Angeles. There are a total 81 million Chinese living in or around cities; American has just 25 million.

Cramer jumped back on the Starbucks bandwagon in July of 2009 as a comeback story with the return of its legendary CEO Howard Schultz. Since then, the stock has climbed 91%. International expansion will make Starbucks as big, perhaps bigger, than it was in the 90s; by 2015, Starbucks plans to have opened a total of 1,500 stores in China or 220 new stores a year. There is no danger of saturation, given the size of China's cities, and Howard Schultz predicts China will be the company's second largest market after the U.S.

Another plus is that Starbucks has been in the Middle Kingdom for 12 years, so staying power is practically guaranteed. Yum Brands (YUM) is a more seasoned China play, which has seen 35-40% growth in China and McDonald's (MCD) is opening another 200 stores there. Cramer's top pick for the region, however, is Starbucks; "China will turn Starbucks into a growth stock again...I would buy Starubucks and Yum. Why? Because I can count."

CEO Interview: Tim Main, Jabil Circuit (NYSE:JBL), Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO)

"Forget what the greybeards told you," said Cramer. It is okay to chase momentum stocks if you have a sound strategy. What method did Cramer use to find Jabil Circuit (JBL)? He looked at every stock in the S&P 500 that has a tendency of running up before an earnings announcement and staying strong for a week after, and after finding 21 stocks fitting this description, he chose the top five, which included Jabil.

Jabil Circuit reported a "thing of beauty" quarter with a 7 cent beat and raised guidance. The stock is up 19% two weeks after Cramer recommended it. Jabil assembles all things tech and has a healthy industrial and medical business. Given the company's broad exposure, it is an ideal barometer of tech and trades at a multiple of 8 with a 12% growth rate.

CEO Tim Main discussed how Jabil has grown beyond circuit boards and and has diversified into the medical and industrial space; both businesses have grown a combined 46% year over year. While some were worried about the effect of poor performance in Cisco (CSCO), one of Jabil's main clients, and how it would affect the company, Main responded that no single client has undue influence over Jabil's peformance, and its client base is "really broad. We are a different animal than we were 5 years ago."

"Cisco is the plumber of communcations networks, Jabil is the plumber of global supply chain networks for leading companies in the world, and we do the dirty work of getting products to is a great growth business and our margin and growth really reflect the value proposotion and the differentation Jabil has for its customers," Main said.

Cramer thinks Jabil deserves a multiple of 15 instead of 8 and thinks the stock is headed much higher.

Off the Charts: Freeport McMoRan (NYSE:FCX), PPG (NYSE:PPG), DuPoint (NYSE:DD), Dow Chemical (NYSE:DOW), Alcoa (NYSE:AA), Vale (NYSE:VALE)

Even though many materials stocks, such as Freeport McMoRan (FCX), PPG (PPG), DuPoint (DD), Dow Chemical (DOW) are at or are flirting with their 52 week highs, Cramer thinks they are too cheap. He spoke with analyst John Roque, who combines fundamental and technical analysis to conclude that materials stocks are headed higher.

Currently, these stocks comprise only 3.7% of the S&P 500, when in 1989, they were 4.5% and in 1977, they were at 8%. With worldwide demand for materials raging higher, it is unlikely that materials stocks will not grab a larger part of the S&P 500. Roche predicts they could revert to their former percentages of 4.5% or even 5%; investors who hold these stocks will see gains of around 40%.The charts also seem to predict another rally; the sector built a base until 2005, and the stocks rallied until 2008, when the economy started to collapse. Roche thinks they are building another base right now to spring upward into another multi-year rally. Cramer would buy Freeport, PPG, Alcoa or Vale (VALE).

Rally in Copper is Real: BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP), Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT), Joy Global (JOYG)

Skepticism is overdone these days, said Cramer, especially in sectors that are justifiably climbing. On Tuesday, copper rose to its 2008 levels. To silence critics who might conclude that "everything that goes up must crash," Cramer pointed out the reason for the rise this time is genuine worldwide demand, short supply and the trend toward urbanization while in 2008, commodities were being brought up artificially by funds.

How can copper be in a bubble when it can be demonstrated that demand is growing and there isn't enough of the metal to go around? "The laws of supply and demand have not been repealed by the laws of gravity," said Cramer, who recommends buying Freeport McMoRan, Vale, BHP Billiton (BHP), Caterpillar (CAT) and Joy Global (JOYG).


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