Yesterday we asked Bespoke readers what they expect the S&P 500 to do in 2011. Like most sentiment polls released recently, the results were very bullish. As shown below, 32% of respondents said the S&P 500 would be up between 0 and 10% for the year. This was the projection that was selected most. The second highest response (29%) was for the S&P to gain between 10 and 20%, and another 10% said the index would gain more than 20%. Overall, 71% of respondents selected one of the three projections for gains on 2011.
On the bearish side, 11% are projecting the S&P to decline between 0 and 10% next year, 8% are looking for a decline of 10 to 20%, and 10% see a decline of more than 20%.
Up until recently, the contrarian call on equities was that they were headed higher. Based on all of the sentiment polls we've seen recently, however, the contrarian call has shifted to the bearish camp. The majority now appear to be bullish.