How My Top 10 Stocks for 2010 Performed

by: Chris Katje
This is a brief summary of how my Top 10 Stocks for 2010 performed over the course of the year. I am working on my new list for 2011, to be published soon. The original article can be found here.
1. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)
Start: $210.28
End: $322.56
Gain: 53%
What I Said: Tablet introduction, company continues to beat earnings.
What Happened: Tablet sold well, iPhone sold well. The company continued to increase market share in several areas.
2011: The iPhone finally comes to Verizon (NYSE:VZ), which should increase subscriptions.. I think Apple will continue to rise, with likely resistance at the $350 level. I would hold any shares that I have and look to accumulate more shares at $315.

2. American Tower (NYSE:AMT)
Start: $43.21
End: $51.64
Gain: 20%
What I Said: Play on the increase in mobile market as company will continue to lease out tower space.
What Happened: Mobile market continues to grow and American Tower remains well positioned for overseas growth.
2011: Stock had a nice run in 2010 but has plenty of room to grow. American Tower can increase through acquisition and higher lease prices on its towers. The stock is a great play on mobile growth and emerging markets all in one stock.

3. Berkshire Hathaway "B" (NYSE:BRK.B)
Start: $66.22
End: $80.11
Gain: 21%
What I Said: Stock split for first time in company history would increase institutional holdings and drive price up.
What Happened: The stock moved up after the split, as BRK.B became affordable to everyday investors.
2011: The company is one of the best-run, by one of the best investors ever. The only disadvantage is Warren Buffett’s age and health. As long as he is behind the company, it will unlock value through new investments and acquisitions.
4. Disney (NYSE:DIS)
Start: $32.41
End: $37.51 + $0.40 in Dividends
Gain: 17%
What I Said: Strong release schedule of Toy Story 3, Iron Man 2, and others would help movie segment. The Marvel acquisition would lead to new movies and TV shows with new characters.
What Happened: Disney had a great year in movies and television. Company also saw increases in traffic to theme parks.
2011: The company will release Cars 2 and Pirates of the Caribbean 4. The company also opens its Hawaii resort in 2011, which could help its theme park segment.
5. Fomento Mexicano (NYSE:FMX)
Start: $48.21
End: $55.92 + $0.638
Gain: 17%
What I Said: The company was looking for a buyer for its beer unit, which would give it cash to focus on opening more Oxxo gas stations in Mexico.
What Happened: The company reached an agreement with Heineken (HINKY.PK) to shed its beer unit. Fomento Mexicano now owns 20% of Heineken, while it can shift its focus to its convenience store and Coca Cola (NYSE:KO) segments.
2011: Mexico continues to be one of my favorite countries to invest in. This is a great company to be in, as it also has exposure to several other countries.
6. Gilead (NASDAQ:GILD)
Start: $43.39
End: $36.24
Loss: 16%
What I Said: Buy recommendation, as company was trading near its 52-week low.
What Happened: Company was hit hard by the market. The company still has several promising drugs in the pipeline.
2011: The company trades close to a two-year low and currently trades for less than 10x future earnings. This is a great value play at these prices.
7. McKesson (NYSE:MCK)
Start: $62.50
End: $70.38 + $0.66 in Dividends
Gain: 14%
What I Said: Potential acquisition target. Company will benefit from 2009 healthcare bill.
What Happened: McKesson increased its dividend during 2010 and seems to be in great financial health. Company is currently trading around its 52-week high.
2011: The company hit a 10-year high and looks like it needs to pull back a little bit more. Look to buy at $64 or less.
8. Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX)
Start: $55.09
End: $175.70
Gain: 219%
What I Said: Netflix is an acquisition target that will get bought out by mid-2011.
What Happened: Company continues to grow on its own without being bought. App for iPad went over extremely well. New streaming-only plan will increase subscriptions. Entry into Canada shows that international expansion is a strong possibility.
2011: Netflix was up considerably in 2010. It would need strong momentum and subscription numbers to keep up that trend. Also still likely to get bought out at some point. I would look for the stock to fall back to $150 and load up.
9.Smart Balance (SMBL)
Start: $6.16
End: $4.33
Loss: 30%
What I Said: The company’s new milk line would increase sales. Stock trading below book value shows buying opportunity.
What Happened: Milk line did not go over as well as expected. Too many other companies to compete with.
2011: Stock is trading below book, and below enterprise value as well. While this company is a small player, it is trading at very attractive prices and could also be an acquisition.
10. Verizon (VZ)
Start: $33.13
End: $35.78 + $1.913 in dividends
Gain: 14%
What I Said: iPhone to Verizon would increase subscriptions. Great dividend play.
What Happened: The iPhone will be coming to Verizon next year, a little later than expected. Optimistic investors start to take note and bid up stock.
2011: This will be the year of the iPhone and the make-it or break-it year for Verizon.
Honorable Mentions:
Sysco (NYSE:SYY) Gain 7%
Zoltek (NASDAQ:ZOLT) Gain 20%
Express Scripts (NASDAQ:ESRX) Gain 24%
Allscripts (NASDAQ:MDRX) Loss 6%
Nike (NYSE:NKE) Gain 31%
Green Mountain (NASDAQ:GMCR) Gain 20%
Overall eight winners, two losers, and an almost-perfect honorable mention column. The 10 stocks gained 329% for an average return of 32.9%, which beat the S&P 500 for the second year in a row. Netflix was the big gainer, returning 219%. Without that monster stock, the return drops to 12.2%.

For 2009, I had an average return of 99.9% with three doubles.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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