It was the best start to a year in over seven years, but I am not sure how long Monday’s gain will last, at least over the short-term.
According to my High-Probability, Mean-Reversion overbought/oversold indicator, most of the ETFs I follow have pushed into a short-term “overbought” to “very overbought” state. As I have stated ad nauseum, when this many ETFs hit a short-term extreme the market typically takes a short-term reprieve (1-3 days).
The XLB position that is currently held in the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion strategy moved in the red Monday although it was only a slight move. The position, in my opinion, still looks rather well-positioned given the short-term extreme overbought state of the market and XLB.
Since I placed the trade there have been some incredibly large positions taken in XLB. Someone sure thinks the Materials sector (XLB) is headed south. Check it out here.
The year ended with some nice gains as the High-Probability, Mean-Reversion strategy made 9.7% gains for the month to follow up the 3.7% in November. Not bad for the first two months of the strategy. Hopefully 2011 will bring allow for more gains in the strategy.
As I stated last week, going back over the last seven years, if you purchased QQQQ on the 8th trading day of January and held until the end of the month, you would have had returns of -2.3%, -3.1%, -2.3%, -2.7%, -4.1%, -1.6% and -7.7%. The median maximum gain during those trades was +0.7% compared to a median draw down of -5.3%.
Short-Term High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator – as of close 1/03/10
* Biotech (IBB) – 62.5 (neutral)
* Consumer Discretionary (XLY) – 70.5 (overbought)
* Health Care (XLV) – 72.5 (overbought)
* Financial (XLF) – 84.2 (very overbought)
* Energy (XLE) – 89.5 (very overbought) / RSI (2) – 98.8
* Gold Miners (GDX) – 48.5 (neutral)
* Industrial (XLI) – 80.1 (very overbought)
* Materials (XLB) – 91.4 (very overbought) / RSI (2) – 95.7
* Real Estate (IYR) – 85.8 (very overbought) / RSI (2) – 96.0
* Retail (RTH) – 76.2 (overbought)
* Semiconductor (SMH) – 61.8 (neutral)
* United States Oil Fund (USO) – 64.1 (neutral)
* Utilities (XLU) – 68.3 (neutral)
* Gold (GLD) – 64.9 (neutral)
* Small Cap Bear 3x (TZA) – 24.6 (oversold)
* Small-Cap Bull 3x (TNA) – 74.1 (overbought)
* UltraLong QQQQ (QLD) – 75.4 (overbought)
* Ultra Long S&P 500 (SSO) – 90.2 (very overbought)
* Ultra Short S&P 500 (SDS) – 10.7 (very oversold)
* UltraShort 20+ Treasury (TBT) – 43.5 (neutral)