That revenue projection comes from Morgan Stanley analyst Scott Devitt. In a large research report that emphasized that Amazon has plenty of runway left for growth, Devitt made the following points:
- Amazon can fuel growth just by taking wallet share from its existing customers. Amazon’s 121 million customers spend about $275 a year. Wal-Mart’s 300 million customers spend $750 a year excluding groceries and Sam’s Club.
- International expansion continues.
- New efforts such as Amazon Web Services and digital sales via the Kindle platform are promising.
- Subscription e-commerce for grocery staples is another promising avenue. I’ve been experimenting with subscription groceries for things like tea and cereal. Overall, Amazon’s pricing needs to come down a bit vs. Wal-Mart—based on my informal Dignan Go Lean and Frosted Flakes cereal index—but scale should help that.
Here’s the money chart via Morgan Stanley.
Other odds and ends from analysts upbeat about Amazon.
- Jefferies analyst Youssef Squali reckons that Amazon sold 4 million Kindles in the fourth quarter. Amazon should move about 10 million Kindle devices in 2011.
- E-books should generate $184 million in sales for the fourth quarter, said Squali.
- Fulfillment center expansion at Amazon has focused on dry packaged goods and home and garden. These untapped categories can fuel growth in upcoming years, said Squali.
- Based on Amazon’s fourth quarter actual peak orders, which were up 44 percent from a year ago, Amazon’s revenue should be about $13.05 billion, said Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster.