Harley Davidson Stalls: Problems Beyond Subprime Loans?

Why is Harley Davidson (HOG) getting hit when its earnings beat estimates? One reason might be something I wrote a short time ago, which itself was referring back to something that happened just before the holidays: Standard & Poors had put one of the company's securitizations on CreditWatch with negative implications.

The change reflected "worse than expected" performance trends "being displayed by the underlying pool of Harley-Davidson motorcycle sales contracts, including current cumulative net losses that are tracking above Standard & Poor's initial expectations."

How does this relate to earnings? The company said on its earnings call that the 30-day delinquency rate for managed retail motorcycle loans at quarter end was 5.18% compared with 4.83% a year earlier. Managed retail loans include those the company keeps and those it sells through securitization. "We believe the increase in the delinquency rate is consistent with delinquencies for other types of consumer debt," the company said. How comforting!

Another way to look at that, of course, is the way the story was spun here originally: It's not just the subprime loans that are getting hit.

HOG 1-yr chart: