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Summary

  • Ten 3 and 4 Star stocks showed positive momentum to the upside averaging 27.5% from May 5 to August 25, 2014.
  • 10 top dogs selected by momentum from four sectors showed strong 1 yr. upsides averaging 14.4% as predicted by analyst high price targets.
  • Two 3 Star Dogs showed positive momentum, upsides, & net gains as predicted by analyst high price targets. Eight 4 Star Dogs showed positive yield, momentum, upsides, & net gains.
  • Analysts projected average 17.6% 1 yr. net gains for SAVE, RHI, HTLD, TRGP, THRM, SWKS, CDW, REN, SLCA, & GBX.
  • Consider these stocks as possible starting points for your September Star dog stock purchase research.

One year price momentum results graphed by Yahoo Finance up to market closing prices August 27 for ten stocks from four sectors were rated by analyst 1-yr target projections and yield (dividend / price) to reveal four actionable conclusions discussed below. Two 3 Star Dogs showed positive momentum, upsides, & net gains, while eight 4 Star Dogs showed positive yield, momentum, upsides, & net gains as projected by analyst price targets.

Wall Street Wizard Weights

One-year high and mean target prices set by brokerage analysts multiplied by the number of shares in a $1k investment were used to compare these ten 3&4 star dividend stocks to show their upside price potential into 2015. The number of analysts providing price estimates was noted after the name for each stock. Three to nine analysts were deemed optimal for a valid mean target price estimate.

Actionable Conclusion (1)Ten 3&4 Star Dividend Dogs Showed 8.2% to 38.3% 1 yr High VS. .07% to 9.3% Median Target Price Upsides

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Since the spring of 2011 a series of reports has applied dog methodology to uncover possible buy opportunities in each of eight major market sectors listed by Yahoo Finance: basic materials (BasMats), consumer goods (ConGo), financials (Fins), healthcare (Heal), industrial goods (IndiGo), services (Svcs), technology (Tec), and utilities (Utes). Seeking Alpha reader requests prompted another series of index-specific articles reporting dividend yield plus price upside results for indices: Dow 30; S&P 500 & Aristocrats; Russell 2000 & 1000; NASDAQ 100; Champions, Contenders, & Challengers Combined; Global. Bonus reports covered, Sindex AllStars, and Sector Leaders.

This report broke from the sector and index limitation by seeking out and applying dog metrics to gauge future value upsides for individual stocks showing strong momentum for the past year but especially since May of 2014.

Ten For the Money

Two 3 Star stocks to buy and hold for at least one year were here reported based on (1) momentum as graphed and documented by May 5 to August 25 price charts Yahoo! Finance; (2) price upside; (3) net gain results based on analyst 1 yr target projections. When (4) yield included in the data, eight more 4 Star selections emerged.

Actionable Conclusion (2)Ten 3&4 Star Dogs Showed 12% to 54.75% May 5 to August 25 Upsides

Stocks reported were termed dogs because most were selected based on Michael B. O'Higgins book "Beating The Dow" (HarperCollins, 1991), which revealed how high yielding stocks whose prices increased (and whose dividend yields therefore decreased) could be sold off once a year to sweep gains and reinvest the seed money into higher yielding stocks in the same index, named Dogs of the Dow. O'Higgins system works to find bargains in any collection of dividend paying stocks. Utilizing analyst price upside estimates has expanded the stock universe to include popular growth (momentum) equities, as demonstrated below.

Actionable Conclusion (2): Wall Street Wizards Willed A 17% Average High or a 5% Average Median Target Price Net Gain for Ten 3&4 Star Dogs Come August 2015

Ten 3&4 Star stocks were graphed below to show relative strengths by dividend and price as of August 28, 2014 and those projected by analyst mean price target estimates to the same date in 2015.

A hypothetical $1000 investment in each equity was divided by the current share price to find the number of shares purchased. The shares number was then multiplied by projected annual per share dividend amounts to find the dividend return. Thereafter the analyst mean target price was used to gauge the stock price upsides and net gains including dividends less broker fees as of 2015.

Historic prices and actual dividends paid from $10,000 invested as $1k in each of the stocks and the aggregate single share prices of those ten stocks created data points for 2014. Projections based on estimated dividend amounts from $1000 invested in the ten stocks and aggregate one year analyst target share prices from Yahoo Finance created the 2015 data points green for price and blue for dividend.

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Yahoo analysts high 1 yr targets projected a 14% lower dividend from $10K invested as $1k in ten dogs in this group while aggregate single share price for those ten was projected to increase by 19% in the coming year.

Yahoo analysts median 1 yr targets projected a 3.9% lower dividend from $10K invested as $1k in ten dogs in this group while aggregate single share price for those ten was projected to increase by 3.9% in the coming year.

The number of analysts contributing to the high or mean target price estimate for each stock was noted in the next to the last column on the charts. Three to nine analysts was considered optimal for a valid projection estimate. Estimates provided by one analyst were not applied (n/a).

A beta (risk) ranking for each stock was provided in the far right column of the above chart. A beta of 1 meant the stock's price would move with the market. Less than 1 showed lower than market movement. Higher than 1 showed greater than market movement. A negative beta number indicated the degree of a stocks movement opposite of market direction.

Actionable Conclusion (4): 4 Star Dividend Dogs 1 yr Momentum Charts Supported Analyst Target Net Gains of 4% to 40% by August 2015

Ten probable profit generating trades were revealed by Thomson/First Call in Yahoo Finance for 2015:

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Spirit Airlines, Inc. (NASDAQ:SAVE) was projected to net $383.31 based on high target estimates or $67.15 based on median target estimates from ten analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed these estimates subject to volatility 68% greater than the market as a whole.

This gain will be built on a base gain of 28.44% calculated from May 5 to August 28, 2014.

Robert Half International Inc (NYSE:RHI) was projected to net $202.96 based on high target estimates or $82.99 based on median target estimates from thirteen analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed these estimates subject to volatility 38% greater than the market as a whole.

This gain will be built on a base gain of 12.13% calculated from May 5 to August 28, 2014.

Heartland Express, Inc (NASDAQ:HTLD) was projected to net $186.70 based on high target estimates or $70.67 based on median target estimates from ten analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed these estimates subject to volatility 69% less than the market as a whole.

This gain will be built on a base gain of 12.85% calculated from May 5 to August 28, 2014.

Targa Resources Group (NYSE:TRGP) was projected to net $184.74 based on high target estimates or $19.32 based on median target estimates from seventeen analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed these estimates subject to volatility 11% greater than the market as a whole.

This gain will be built on a base gain of 27.80% calculated from May 5 to August 28, 2014.

Gentherm Incorporated (NASDAQ:THRM) was projected to net $179.59 based on high target estimates or $8.41 based on median target estimates from six analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed these estimates subject to volatility 113% greater than the market as a whole.

This gain will be built on a base gain of 26.54% calculated from May 5 to August 28, 2014.

Skyworks Solutions Inc. (NASDAQ:SWKS) was projected to net $158.25 based on high target estimates or $67.14 based on median target estimates from eighteen analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed these estimates subject to volatility 61% greater than the market as a whole.

This gain will be built on a base gain of 34.61% calculated from May 5 to August 28, 2014.

CDW Corporation (NASDAQ:CDW) was projected to net $138.42 based on high target estimates or $47.37 based on median target estimates from ten analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed these estimates subject to volatility 41% less than the market as a whole.

This gain will be built on a base gain of 29.22% calculated from May 5 to August 28, 2014.

Trinity Industries Inc. (NYSE:TRN) was projected to net $133.93 based on high target estimates or $84.56 based on median target estimates from eight analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed these estimates subject to volatility 87% greater than the market as a whole.

This gain will be built on a base gain of 22.82% calculated from May 5 to August 28, 2014.

U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:SLCA) was projected to net $118.29 based on high target estimates or $7.07 based on median target estimates from nine analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed these estimates subject to volatility 241% greater than the market as a whole.

This gain will be built on a base gain of 54.75% calculated from May 5 to August 28, 2014.

The Greenbrier Companies (NYSE:GBX) was projected to net $81.77 based on high target estimates or $8.41 based on median target estimates from nine analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed these estimates subject to volatility 182% greater than the market as a whole.

This gain will be built on a base gain of 41.94% calculated from May 5 to August 28, 2014.

Average net gain in dividend and price was 17.7% based on high target estimates or 4.8% based on median target estimates on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten dogs. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 69% greater than the market as a whole.

The net gain estimates above did not factor-in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible starting points for your momentum dog dividend stock purchase research process. These were not recommendations.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in Yahoo! Finance.

Source: Ten 3 And 4 Star Momentum Dogs Flash 8.2% To 38% 1-Year Net Gains