The strong equity returns in the just completed month of August prove historical expectations do not always play out as the data might suggest. As we noted in our post just before August began, Is This The Much Awaited Market Pullback?, the average August return for the past 10 years has been negative.
|From The Blog of HORAN Capital Advisors|
With the strong August returns, several market pundits are reiterating their often repeated call for a major market correction. A correction would not surprise us, but we do not see the 30 - 60% that is predicted by some investment managers. Several article links in this week's magazine provide insight into these repeated correction calls; one by Barry Ritholtz on David Tice's correction call and the other by Larry Swedroe covering John Hussman's bear market point of view.
The coming week is a holiday shortened one with a number of important economic reports. Most watched will be the data surrounding employment. Jobless claims will be reported on Thursday and the employment situation report will be released on Friday. The employment data is getting closer scrutiny as Janet Yellen has noted the labor market is weaker than it should be. Econoday notes, the employment report likely will play a key role in the next round of Fed forecasts for the economy, posted with the September 17 FOMC statement."The key question is when will the Fed begin to raise rates.
Making up for the light article links from last week, the Monday holiday allowed for me to include a few more articles that might be of interest for the coming week. The link for this week's magazine is available here.