Sifting Through the World Agriculture Price Estimates: Winners and Losers

by: Wall St. Cheat Sheet

Yesteday’s USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates caused quite a pop in agricultural commodity prices. (Check Out: “Here are Scary Charts of Food Prices Back to 30-Year Highs.“)

In addition to showing you the winning and losing stocks, here is your Cheat Sheet to the economic report:

Wheat: U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected 40 million bushels lower this month as a reduction in expected feed and residual use is more than offset by higher projected exports.

Course Grains (Corn): U.S. feed grain supplies for 2010/11 are projected down reflecting lower corn production. U.S. corn production is estimated 93 million bushels lower as a 1.5-bushel-per-acre reduction in the national average yield outweighs a 183,000-acre increase in harvested area.

Rice: The U.S. 2010/11 rice crop is estimated at 243.1 million cwt, up 1.5 million or 0.6 percent from the previous estimate due to increased yields.

Oilseeds: U.S. oilseed production for 2010/11 is estimated at 100.5 million tons, down 1.2 million from last month. Lower crops for soybeans, sunflowerseed, and canola are only partly offset by increases for peanuts and cottonseed.

Sugar: Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2010/11 is decreased 88,000 short tons, raw value, from last month.

Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy: The estimate of 2010 red meat and poultry production is raised from last month, reflecting higher production of beef, pork, broilers, and turkey. The forecast of production for 2011 is also raised for beef and broilers, but lowered for pork. The turkey production forecast is unchanged from last month.

Cotton: The U.S. cotton 2010/11 supply and demand estimates show minor revisions from last month.

Yesterday the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut forecasts for crop stocks. The CME (NASDAQ:CME) states:

“This morning’s USDA data provided lots of bullish news as nearly every figure came in below traders’ expectations.”

Corn and soybeans bolted to 30-month highs as final estimates of the 2010 crop were 12.447 billion bushels, down from 12.54 billion (December) and down from a revised 13.092 billion in 2009.

The USDA warned global stocks-to-demand would fall to “levels unseen since the mid-1970s.” This leaves no buffer for unforeseen weather problems.

The Winners

Potash (NYSE:POT), Mosaic (NYSE:MOS), Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE:ADM), Deere (NYSE:DE), and Bunge (NYSE:BG) all benefited from the news. ETFs to consider are Market Vectors Agribusiness (NYSEARCA:MOO), PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (NYSEARCA:DBA), and Rogers Intl Commodity Index – Agriculture Total Return ETN (NYSEARCA:RJA).

The Losers

Food producers and wholesalers will now have increased costs. Some will be passed on to the consumer, others will negatively impact the bottom line: Coke (NYSE:KO), PepsiCo (NYSE:PEP), Nestle (OTCPK:NSRGY), General Mills, Inc. (NYSE:GIS), Kellogg Company (NYSE:K), and Kraft (KFT).