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PepsiCo, Inc. (NYSE:PEP)

Barclays 2014 Back-to-School Consumer Conference

September 03, 2014 09:00 AM ET

Executives

Tom Greco - EVP and President, Frito-Lay North America

Al Carey - Chief Executive Officer - Americas Beverages

Analysts

Mike Branca - Barclays

Mike Branca - Barclays

Good morning, we’re delighted to be joined now by the Heads of PepsiCo Americas Beverages and Frito-Lay North America. Al Carey has been the CEO of PepsiCo Americas Beverages since late 2011 and has led the revitalization of that business in the context of a historically challenged U.S. soft drink landscape. Tom Greco, has headed Frito-Lay since 2011 and driven admirable growth for the segment while accelerating innovation and cost savings. We look forward to hearing their takes on major drivers in their respected businesses, ongoing health and wellness issues, revenue management opportunities, cost savings and category fragmentation.

So without further ado, I would like turn the podium over to Tom.

Tom Greco

Well, thank you, Mike and good morning. Before Al and I discuss our North American business, I want to refer you to the Safe Harbor statements on forward-looking statement and where you can find on our Web site a reconciliation to non-GAAP measures that we'll discuss today.

Now let’s started, first of all I am going to give you a look at the overall PepsiCo North America business. Then I'm going to talk you a little bit about Frito-Lay and then I’ll turn it over to Al to talk about the North American beverage business. NAB and FLNA are a huge part of PepsiCo, representing 52% of PepsiCo revenues and an even greater percentage of our overall profits. And relative to our CPG competitors, we enjoy a significant scale advantage. In fact we’re almost twice the size of the closest CPG competitor in North America and five times the size of others.

In addition, we have large scale brands. PepsiCo has nine of the top 50 trademarks at retail, more than any other CPG company. There are multiple benefits of one integrated portfolio. First, we realized significant cost savings, including $1 billion in ongoing cost synergies globally across procurement, R&D, and other functions. We also benefit on the revenue side from joint promotions and merchandizing across our entire portfolio. In emerging markets, we’re able to leverage the foundation that we built in beverages to develop our snacks business. Strategically, we get scale benefits when we integrate consumer and shopper insights across all of our categories. This also enables increased relevance for our retail and food service partners who value a broad perspective across categories.

Finally having an integrated portfolio enables talent development and attraction. However the most exciting part of our integrated portfolio is that our categories are uniquely complementary. In fact the incidents of co-purchase between salty snacks and liquid refreshments beverages is higher than other commonly purchased items, even more than peanut butter and jelly, how about that. Transitioning to the consumer food and beverage environment in North America, there is a little doubt that our customers are all looking for incremental growth.

PepsiCo has a clear formula to achieve this. We work together with our customers to develop deep category insights within our respective categories. We then leverage these consumer insights to understand the demands basis that our products compete in. That understanding informs every single thing that we do; how we build our brands, how we brief our R&D teams on innovation and how we execute in the marketplace. And this year it’s proven to be a winning formula.

In 2014, PepsiCo is by far the largest contributor to food and beverage growth year-to-date. We've contributed almost two times the growth dollars of the next closest CPG competitor in the U.S. and as you can see many companies are actually declining. However our performance is not just a result of the scale. We benefit from a thoughtful balance of both scale and focus. In fact our North American businesses are laser focused on what it takes to win in each category. For example, the Flavor Kitchen at Frito-Lay helps us bring greater new flavor ideas to life like the Lays Do Us a Flavor campaign which we've now executed all over the globe.

Also the Gatorade Sport Science Institute is at the cutting edge of sports nutrition research, working with top athletes to elevate their game. We know our category extremely well. At the same time in today’s world, scale also matters. We leverage PepsiCo scale in procurement and back office. We also take advantage of partnerships like the NFL, along with productivity ideas like GES as well as capability building technology, all of which provides scale benefits to our businesses across North America.

Finally, our scale and complementary portfolio helps us better understand the consumer. Since our brands frequently compete in common demand spaces, we’re able to leverage a common demand framework. Examples include Doritos and Mountain Dew very popular with millennial consumers, as well as Tostitos and Pepsi an important part of any party.

Our customers fully recognize this and they help us bring this to life in the marketplace. At Dollar General, Doritos and Dew is a part of year long program which has driven co-purchase transactions up 21% at DG. We also leveraged Doritos and Dew with our Latino consumers with Juntos Disfrutamos Más. Another example of scale benefit is how we leverage our NFL partnership with Pepsi and Lay’s. Pepsi and Tostitos is a perfect pairing for enjoying your favorite team and your favorite players. We benefit from this sponsorship throughout the entire season, from free season right through to Super Bowl. In fact when Frito-Lay snacks are merchandized along with Pepsi CSDs, we not only see more inventory on display, it also translates to higher sales.

Joint displays drive great perimeter inventory, leading to accelerated sales growth for both snacks and beverages. This is a competitive advantage that other competitors simply cannot match at retail. In addition, we leverage the NFL with our food service partners. Our NFL partnership and powerful PepsiCo lineup enables us to secure new foods service venues, like Haynesville in 2012 and Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara which we secured in 2013. And we bring our brands and new products to life in food service throughout NFL stadiums. Here you can see our presence at MetLife Stadium with our Tostitos cards and our Pepsi advertising on TV screens at AT&T's Stadium in Dallas. Later Al Carey will provide additional examples of how we leverage our portfolio to win in food service.

Finally, we also leverage PepsiCo scale with our advertising. I’d like to show you a spot showing World Cup star Lionel Messi. Can we run the video please? This high impact commercial aired in 70 countries all over the world and featured three global superstars; Lay’s, Messi and of course Pepsi.

In summary, we leverage our combined portfolio by executing seasonal programs, innovating with customers, unlocking local opportunities and engaging multi-culture consumers across North America and it’s been working. Being part of PepsiCo brings scale benefit to all of our businesses.

Now allow me to shift gears to Frito-Lay North America. At Frito-Lay, we have an excellent track record of performance. Our net revenue five-year CAGR is 3.8%, putting us the top of the CPG landscape in North America. In addition, we're laser focused on productivity which has led to a 6% CAGR on core operating profit and 2.7 points of operating margin expansion. As we’ve talked about before, we achieved sustainable results through a consistent growth model at PepsiCo, which involves building big brands delivering exciting innovation to retailers and consumers, world-class execution and productivity to fuel our growth. We follow this model at Frito-Lay.

In terms of brand building, our Lay's Do Us a Flavor campaign has been an overwhelming success story. Last year, we thought we had made it big with four million entries in the U.S. and in 2014 we had over 14 million consumers submit for the next new flavor of Lay’s. Our current campaign is now in full swing and the most recent IRI period ending August 10th Lay’s scans were up 9%. Take a look at the advertising we’re running this summer right through to the end of September.

So feel free to try the Do Us a Flavor finalist in the break room next door. We use the very same campaign up in Canada and our results are equally strong up in Canada. Of course new products have always been an important part of our success. In fact our innovation contribution to growth has accelerated in recent years at Frito-Lay. In 2013 Tostitos Cantina retail sales exceeded $100 million and it was the number one savory snack in IRI Pacesetters last year. This year we followed up with the launch to Tostitos Fajitas Scoops and Tostitos Queso Blanco Dip.

In addition, we’ve launched Lay's Kettle Lattice Cut, ROLD GOLD Pretzel Thins and the Doritos Bold Flavor Experiment, all of which have exceeded expectations in 2014. And as you know we’re also innovating in macro snacks. In 2014, we launched our ready-to-go initiative in the cookie/cracker aisle. This includes Grandma’s Cookies and Munchies Crackers. This fall our customers have been very excited to hear our 2015 lineup in cookies and crackers.

Of course all great brand building and all great innovation must be supported by world-class execution. We provide our outstanding DSD sales organization with rigorous selling processes and best-in-class tools and technologies to win in the marketplace every single day. Finally, at Frito-Lay, we believe the productivity opportunity is significant. Our productivity agenda pursues cost reduction and capability building initiatives to deliver results.

Within supply chain, we continue to expand GES. By the end of 2014, we will have six sites in play. GES continues to be a huge unlock for us, enabling more SKU capacity with fewer facilities while lowering inventory levels. The exciting part about GES is that it is both a productivity generator and a growth enabler.

In addition, we're leveraging automation. This includes automating packaging, case picking and forklift transportation. Productivity allows us to invest in our growth. Frito-Lay remains focused on driving growth and productivity to ensure leadership across the North American CPG landscape.

Now, I'd like to invite my friend Al Carey to come and talk to you about the North American beverage business.

Al Carey

Good morning everyone. Thanks, Tom. Michael thanks for the invite this morning. It’s a pleasure to be here with all of you and I thought what I'd do for the next couple of minutes is take you through a bit of an update on where we are in the North American beverage business. We did a pretty significant restructure of our business in North America, 2.5 years ago and we took significant costs out of the system and our plan then was to reinvest in the way we focus on the consumer, the way we serve our customers and then good returns on the business. And while I tell you that we are not where we want to be yet, we have made significant progress, despite some significant headwinds in the beverage category and specifically CSDs.

So I feel pretty optimistic about where we're heading and I'll give you a brief review of that right now. So, for starters under the consumer focus, on innovation, we're probably doing twice as much innovation as we did several years ago. Our brand health scores on the top four brands are moving in the right direction, significant on three of them and our shares have stabilized and slightly ticked up here in the last six months to nine months.

On the serving customer side, I feel very good about where we are in execution. I'll give you a couple of examples of that in a minute but I'd also say that one thing that’s helping in execution and in share is what Tom and I are doing to put our teams together and call on the customer as one PepsiCo, both at retail and at food service and I'll give you some more specifics about the food service side of the business, which is now one PepsiCo food service team.

When it comes to productivity and improving returns, I think we have good CapEx discipline in our organization right now. We have had significant productivity and I see that continuing for the next five years. Our revenue management and price realization plans are much better than where they were in the past and some of our new products are contributing to that and we have a leaner organization than we did before.

And Tom showed this slide before and this is the IRI MULOC data which shows sales to all retail channels and since the PepsiCo has contributed more growth to our customers than any other retailers, there were two things he didn’t say about this slide that I'll give you right now.

One is it’s a pretty tough retail environment out there. If you look at this slide through the first half of the year, there are only seven or eight manufacturers who are recording growth out of the top 20. So it gives you an idea relatively speaking how difficult it is in the food business. It’s only growing about 1.5% to 2%. The second thing is if you stripped out the North American beverage business for PepsiCo alone, we rank third in contribution growth. So that’s a big improvement of where we were before. We weren’t even ranking anywhere near that but now showing some improvement in our overall sales growth.

Now I will take a look at some of the consumer work, the result of the reinvestment in the moneys we have put against the brand. In the first half of the year Gatorade was the second best contributor to growth for our retailers. I think Gatorade is making good progress at going back to the basics to be a drink for the sports occasion, the point of sweat. If you look at Mountain Dew, we are having a very good year on Mountain Dew and that is really driven off of a merchandising strategy and new products and the same thing goes for the next two, Lipton and Starbucks.

Starbucks is the fifth biggest contributor to growth, Lipton is nine and both of those are driven off of our merchandising strategy as well as some new products. Naked Juice is number 11, benefiting from premium juice growth in the U.S. today and finally Aquafina holding its own. So, those are six of the top 12 brands that are growing in America. So that’s an improvement of where we were.

Now here is an interesting new development in that the CSD business is stabilizing, although the diets are not and we're working on several solutions for the diets. But in terms of the regular full sugared sodas, our Wild Cherry Pepsi business is growing significantly, showing that young people especially millennials like flavored product.

We have launched a real sugar product this summer, which includes both vanilla and cherry, no high fructose corn syrup, all real sugar and it is doing very well. 7.5 ounce mini cans are doing very well, as is glass and our Mountain Dew business is doing well, particularly the Kickstart business that is almost a $250 million business after its second year in the marketplace.

I feel very good from a future stand point. So out of the seven fastest growing categories in beverages for the next five years, we have a very strong position in six of them. And as you take a look at each one of these -- I’ll take a minute, the flavored CSDs will grow rapidly over the next five years. Most of that is caused by millennials liking flavors but most of the Hispanic influence on our population and Mountain Dew is the number flavored drink. We have had some very good progress on Mountain Dew because of the introduction of Kickstart. Our base business of Mountain Dew is strong and then also this Baja Blast that was rolled out this summer was exceptional, better than we had imagined.

Then we have sports drinks. Gatorade is number one. We have solid business there. It is growing well. We have some new packaging in new forms that are also picking up the business. We have our Lipton tea business. We are now the number one tea brand in America. Pure Leaf Tea is the biggest contributor, and if you look in the future, there's a can up there that shows us Sparkling Tea. Our consumer research shows that Sparking Tea drink with low calories and real tea credentials has got tremendous potential and that’s a product we’ll be launching in the early part of next year.

Ready-to-drink coffee, we’re number one by long shot. That iced coffee has been a real good contributor to us. Premium juices and water; and you see in the water slide, we’ve made some big -- for next year, we have a product called Propel electrolyte water that’s got the same electrolyte levels as Gatorade and it's brought to you by Gatorade, the Propel brand and it’s going to be a very good product. We call it the workout water.

And then we have got very much improved product on O.N.E. coconut water. So if you look at this whole portfolio, six of the seven fastest growing categories in beverage is the future. We have a good position in each of those and I feel pretty good about our ability to grow the business going forward.

Also with the consumer, under the headline of the consumer investment, the best part of last year in my opinion or this early part of this year that some of the brands that we launched last year, very often they will go up and spike and then they come down again in the second year when you don’t reinvest as strongly as you should. These four brands that were introduced last year, when they hit their anniversary, they’ve now overlapped the anniversary with double digit growth.

So if you take Pure Leaf Tea for example, that’s the third year in row of significant growth. Pure Leaf is up 40% this year, was up 40% last year. You take a look at Kickstart, it did $175 million in revenue last year at retail. It’s going to be about $250 million by the time we get down with the second year. Farmstand is up double digit and then also the Gatorade Frost.

Moving over on innovation also to packaging and equipment which is kind of new for us, they’ve done very well with these different packages and specially glass and the mini-cans and here’s where packaging can improve your price realization. So if you take look at the glass bottle of Pepsi, we sold 12 ounces of glass Pepsi for a $1. We sold 12 ounces of Pepsi in a 12-ounce can for $0.35.

So as we move the mix to these kinds of packages, it gives us tremendous opportunity to improve the overall margins for us and then also for our retailers as well. The reinvestment in the business is working pretty well. We now have a master brand strategy on Pepsi where you won’t see a Pepsi next campaign of Pepsi Max, Diet Pepsi, of Regular; we have one Pepsi campaign. It’s worked pretty well for us so far this year, but I would tell you that we are improving our brand health scores especially with millennials on Pepsi. Still more work to do on Pepsi. But if you look at the reinvestment in Mountain Dew, it’s been exceptional. We’ve not only increased advertising in digital on Mountain Dew but new products in Kickstart and overall this brand's health scores, particularly with young man have been exceptionally good.

Gatorade, probably the highest brand health scores we’ve had in the long-time, particularly with young athletes, and then this Pure Leaf Tea has done very well. The numbers are very high in terms of satisfying millennial. So it feels good that the investments that we’ve made in these brands are starting to pay off. We try to do this in a very deliberate way, not trying to do everything all in one year. It’s been a brick-by-brick process, lots of room to improve and more progress needs to be made but we’re definitely making some progress.

Now I move to the execution, I’ll give you an example of two kinds of execution that I think have improved. One is this thing is we call pure plays, where we'll actually put a display in a store that’s 100% devoted to one brand. We have put over 100,000 units of these products out in the marketplace year-to-date. Mountain Dew and Starbucks are the ones as of those most successful and the rules that we have inside of our organization are you put these displays up, everybody has got a target on how many they need to hit, no promoted goods go on these displays. This is all single serve cold model new products and products that are typically not discounted deeply.

So they have worked very well for us and I'm very encouraged with the profit margins that come from that and our retailers are starting to see that as well. And then also as Tom had mentioned, working with our NFL property and working with Game Time at Wal-Mart and NFL Kickoff at other accounts with Frito-Lay, this has become much improved over the last couple of years and I'm very optimistic. Today, we start a Game Time event with Wal-Mart and great results so far.

Now I mentioned something about food service. Under the headline execution, we have created one PepsiCo food service organization and here is what the benefit is. Instead going into a food service customer and it’s a battle between us and our competitor on whose got the lower price, this has become a food and beverage innovation and food and beverage solution presentation.

So when Frito and Pepsi, all the food businesses and all of the beverage innovation gets put together, I think it’s a more compelling argument for the strength of PepsiCo and the food service business, which by the way is an area we have a lot of ground to make up. And what we have done in food service, one of the best examples is Taco Bell. So we have taken that Kickstart Mountain Dew and Baja Blast, put it into a frozen and we have also got this Doritos Locos Tacos which has been an enormous success for Taco Bell, but it’s also been an enormous success with the investment they made in the Doritos brand. We're seeing it in Tom’s numbers now.

We also came to 7-Eleven with a product called Doritos Loaded. It was launched about a month ago. We also accompanied that with a Solar Flare, customized exclusive product that we made just for 7-Eleven on Mountain Dew, another great example of putting the two brands together for scale. And I would tell you that our recent success of winning the business at Buffalo Wild Wings was largely done because of the strength of the overall dual portfolio. Food innovation as well as beverage innovation and service and I throw in Mountain Dew as well. When you are serving young men or young people, while they're watching sports events, Mountain Dew plays a very big role. So I feel good about where we're heading here and then the other part of the food service business is the innovation on equipment.

So if you take a look at the spire equipment, which is a lower cost piece of equipment and it also has got a digital component to it that allows you to pick over 100 varieties of products, including flavored water, sparkling water and flavored variations of our product. Then we move to -- I think it’s an even bigger innovation is starting to retrofit some of the old equipment that’s already out there. So we'll take some of our old equipment, send it to a refurb center, it comes back out, we call it certified pre-owned but then we'll put a refit on it that makes it look very contemporary and then this is some of the feedback we've gotten from our customers.

The food service customers that serve Fountain will tell you, I'm tired of selling the same old things on the Fountain. Why don’t you bring some of the innovation and the new products that are really growing in the marketplace to the Fountain and it’s a very good issue. So when you come into a food service account and you're a mom with some kids, you don’t want the same old product, you want something else, especially products that are little healthier and those that have lower calories. So imagine this, and this will be a reality in the very near future, starting probably in 2015.

We had a big request from customers, real sugar Pepsi on the Fountain that’s easy to do. That’s going back in time in terms of technology, we know how to do that. Sparkling iced-tea, IZZE, Kickstart and SoBe Lifewater with zero calories, now what’s interesting is the SoBe Lifewater with zero calories is actually out there right now and in some parts of the country, where some of our food service sales force has gone ahead and put SoBe Lifewater on one of the heads of fountain, our business went up 7 points on the Fountain, just from having a zero calorie interesting product to offer to the consumers.

When we offer this whole portfolio, I think we will drive growth in that whole Fountain category and these are all reality -- this is not a figment of my imagination. These are products that will be in the marketplace next year. On productivity, significant productivity has been made since 2010 when we bought the bottlers, we've closed 24% of the plants first half of this year. We closed a significant number of plants so far to improve our productivity. We are going through a significant automation plan and also something that is called Geo Box, which is a more efficient delivery system for the route trucks. We're restructuring the go-to market, very similar to the GES program that Tom has done where we're taking inventory out of the system, more cross-stocking facilities, less places that hold inventory.

And then finally, we have a productivity plan that’s very strong for the next five years and PepsiCo has stepped up for additional 1 billion in productivity and we have our fair share of that and I feel confident that the initiatives that we add up to that are things that are well within our ability to accomplish.

I'll close on these two last slides. I have a lot of passion for this subject and this also has something to do with profitability for the category and growth for the category. So imagine on this slide to the left, we have got promoted packs and what I am defining as promoted packs in the LRB business is every imaginable way you can pack 12 ounce cans and 2 liter. These are all the discounted products. They represent about 20% of the mix for the industry. They're more like 30% of the mix for us. They are declining by 3% for the industry. That means all the CSD people promoted packs down 3%.

The rest of the LRB business in this timeframe has grown at a CAGR of 4.2%. I think we'd all be very happy with a 4.2% number. What’s interesting is if you could look at the investments and the money that’s spent to drive the promoted packs, trying to match the prices of the year before and trying to overlap the promoted holiday features from the year before, it's a tremendous amount of money and it’s declining 3% and it’s unlikely the baby boomers want to buy a lot of 24 pack Pepsi. I think we need to move the business in a direction where the consumer is going and that’s away from these promoted packs. If you just took some of that money that we invest in these promoted packs, moved it into the rest of the portfolio, we would see a significant increase in that 4.2% and we have a good portfolio in that lineup.

By the way in that 4.2 is also other CSD products like single serve and different packs that have more profitability to it. So the next question I had before -- when our team presented this was what about CSDs that are not promoted packs. They are even growing 2.5%. So things like Mountain Dew and products like mini cans and glass bottles and not the same old promoted pack. This has -- I can go on for an hour and this has got more potential than anything else in our business and we're rigorously going after this to make sure that we take advantage of the opportunity.

I think there is more growth in the category of LRB if we read a portion of the resources. So takeaways from our business, I think as one PepsiCo Tom and I together, we have focus, we have taken those investments that we did two and half years ago against the brands and they are showing up in brand health and innovation. We’re putting a significant amount of innovation in the marketplace compared to a few years ago. Our execution is better. Frito Lay is rock solid consistent. And I think I’d say that our NAV is strengthening. Lot of improve though. And then if you look at the scale of the two business, when you put them together, we are the number one supplier to the retailer which gives you a seat at the table for strategic discussions. Number one driver of growth, Tom’s team is the number one brand, have number one brands in macro snacks and we are the number one beverage company at retail. And even though we have 22 $1 billion brands in the world for PepsiCo, we have 19 in the U.S. alone. So just off of the volume there.

So that concludes the presentation and hopefully that gives you a little bit of an update on where we stand both on the better together initiative Frito’s performance and then the report card on how we're doing on the beverage business in North America. And I think now Michael we go to a Q&A session.

Question-and-Answer Session

Mike Branca - Barclays

Thanks. Al, obviously the U.S. CSD category has seen very little real pricing for a quite long time and you’ve implemented quite a number of initiatives to try and improve that with everyday value product and package innovation. Could you maybe dimensionalize the scope of the opportunity as you see it for PepsiCo? And then Tom if you would, you talked about scale benefits of the back office and procurement and give us a touch of an update on the GES program with the [indiscernible]. Could you kind of bring us up to speed on the timeline and what kind of productivity savings you see from GES specifically?

Al Carey

I will go first on the pricing. So I think there is a great opportunity to have a rational pricing environment and a hybrid ADV that you are referring to which is we’re very much going after raise the price on the holidays for these carbonated soft drinks and lower them for the ever day and the net will be an improved profitability for the retailer and us. We’ve made some progress on that and it’s showing up in our business but I would tell you it’s a tricky one because if a retailer gets to a holiday and they feel like they need volume, they still sometimes will not cooperate and price aggressively. But we're making progress. In the first of -- these are IRI category numbers. There is only about a 0.5 of pricing in the market but it’s gone up. If you look in quarter two and quarter three, it’s more or like 2.5% in pricing, some mix, some rate but I think the trend is an approved pricing in the marketplace and a more rational pricing environment.

Tom Greco

Yes. And on the productivity -- a couple responses there Michael. I mean first of all on the global level we look for scale benefits across the big functions. So you mentioned R&D procurement A&L. I showed that spot on Pepsi and Lay’s with Messi, 70 markets, one production cost. So the global groups continue to look for scale benefits across all PepsiCo. In North America Al and I are working on North American scale benefit opportunities. Those can be in the commercial area, the NFL sponsorship. We actually see a lot of room continued scale benefits here in North America as we look for ways to leverage the entire business here.

On GES specifically at Frito, our productivity agenda was increased by 50% in 2012 and we increased it year each year ‘13 and ’14. We’ve hit out productivity target each over the last three years and going forward, GES plays a huge role in our overall productivity agenda because of all the reasons I showed in the slide.

Mike Branca - Barclays

Okay. I think we’re going to stop here and head out to the breakout for more Q&A. Please join me in thanking Tom, Al and Jamie Caulfield for the beverages and snacks we had over the course of the conference and the presentation.

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